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Economist.com
Buy Africa
Economies are prospering but political stability is fragile
Feb 19th 2008
From The Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire
Some hedge funds, brokerages and offshore investors believe that the time is ripe to "buy Africa". It is certainly the case that price-earnings ratios for many African stockmarkets were above their sectoral equivalents in mature markets in 2007, but the ongoing fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis in the US should act as a reminder that what goes up eventually comes down.
The markets can turn very quickly—and very substantially. In Africa 1.01: Unlocking Investment Potential, published before subprime realism had begun to set in, emerging-market investment bank Renaissance Capital concludes that the continent "has probably turned the corner on its relative economic decline," thanks to "a supportive global backdrop for commodity exporters", hugely improved national balance sheets and "a political commitment to better economic policies".
The binding constraint on most African economies has now shifted, it says, from a lack of foreign exchange and high cost of capital to "chronic infrastructure bottlenecks, reflecting the surge in GDP growth after years of investment neglect". Renaissance argues that "a bet on the sustainability of Africa’s recovery" is that sufficient funding and political will exist to overcome this key constraint, although it admits that infrastructural improvements will need to be "ongoing for some time". On the basis of this conclusion, Renaissance suggests three main investment targets for those seeking to cash in on frontier market opportunities in Africa:
• Domestic companies that make or supply cement or other building materials as primary inputs for infrastructural and related construction and real estate projects. This will remove the "current primary wedge" to African economies achieving higher rates of sustainable economic growth.
• Firms that supply retail markets, especially fast-moving consumer goods. Growth in these markets will "capture the broadening base of economic development," Renaissance says.
• The funding of these two opportunities, notably through consumer banking and micro-finance companies.
It is certainly true that growth in Africa has been, and will be, constrained by infrastructural bottlenecks—as is apparent from the power-supply problems that have bedevilled growth in Nigeria and parts of East Africa for years, while recently emerging as a serious obstacle to recovery and expansion in Southern Africa. However, far from being the consequence of inadequate funding, these are the result of weak political commitment, poor (or non-existent) planning and the conviction that a foreign donor or lender will come to the rescue. Thus politicians in South Africa and Zambia were well aware that there would be a power problem from 2007 onwards, but they failed to act until it was too late. This problem is replicated throughout Africa, where inadequacies are apparent not in hardware so much as "software" such as skills, technology and above all good governance.
The bottom millions are being marginalised
On the face of it, as Renaissance suggests, it makes sense to invest in consumer markets that "capture the broadening base of economic development". The reality, however, is that in many—probably most—African economies the base is not broadening at all. The bottom millions in rural areas and urban slums are as deeply mired in poverty as they were a decade ago. The commodity booms in oil, gas and metals are leading to a surge in cheap consumer goods imported from Asia, not booming domestic manufacturing companies (with the exception of those making foodstuffs, beer, soft drinks and cigarettes).
Thabo Mbeki’s failure to retain the presidency of South Africa's ruling party is largely attributable to the failure of the "boom" to alleviate poverty and unemployment. There is a fast-growing black middle-class (the so-called black diamonds), but it is what has been happening below, to the bottom millions, that swept Jacob Zuma and his followers into power within the African National Congress.
The truth is that in Africa, politics dominate, and the political environment can deteriorate with surprising rapidity—as demonstrated by the problems in Kenya in the wake of its December 2007 presidential polls. Unfortunately, analysis of African stockmarkets often overlooks (or understates) the critical role of good-quality institutions. A February 2008 study of the South African stock exchange—The Determinants of Stock Market Development in Emerging Economies: Is South Africa Different?—written for the IMF concludes that strong institutions are necessary to reduce political risk and thereby boost confidence in local stock exchanges. If analysts in the hedge fund or venture capital industries pay insufficient attention to this aspect they are likely to misread and misinterpret African politics, and thus investment prospects.
Copyright © 2008 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
China to pump $9bn into DRC economy
China to pump $9bn into DRC economy
By: Reuters
Published: 15 Feb 08 - 18:02
China will pump $9 billion into Congo's war-ravaged mines and infrastructure in a newly-signed partnership that could propel the African country's growth into double digits, a government minister said on Friday.
The value given by Planning Minister Olivier Kamitatu for an accord signed on January 28 by China and Democratic Republic of Congo was much higher than the $5 billion price tag originally announced last year in Congo.
"Three billion (dollars) will go towards improving the mines to a point where they can produce. Six billion will be for infrastructure," Kamitatu told Reuters in an interview.
Under last month's deal, Exim Bank of China pledged financing for major road and rail construction projects in Congo and for the rehabilitation of its strategic mining sector, badly damaged by years of war, corruption and neglect.
In return, China's Sinohydro Corp and China Railway Engineering Corp received a 68 percent stake in a joint venture with Congolese state copper miner Gecamines, with rights to two large copper and cobalt concessions.Kamitatu said the deal perfectly suited the strategic needs of his country, which is still recovering from decades of corruption and neglect and a 1998-2003 war that left infrastructure in ruins.
"We want to hit double-digit growth in 2010-2011. We are now at 6.3 percent," he said.
"We have identified the principal obstacles to that growth, among them a lack of infrastructure, a very poorly exploited energy potential, and an industrial deficit especially in the area of construction. So we are keen to pursue this partnership," Kamitatu said.
Chinese investment channelled through the mining joint venture Sicomines created by the deal would rehabilitate the Mashamba and Dikuluwe copper and cobalt mines.
Kamitatu said the aim was to revitalise Congo's once mighty mining sector, a treasure trove of largely unexploited concessions attracting the interest of major foreign companies.
"In the next five years, (Sicomines) wants to reach 400,000 tonnes per year (of copper). This will help Congo eclipse by far the production capacity of the end of the 1980s," he said.
State miner Gecamines says copper production for 2007 was 23,030 tonnes, but a number of big mining projects are under way as the former Belgian colony seeks to reap the benefits of its huge mineral resources.
At the height of production in 1989, Congo produced around 500,000 tonnes of copper annually.
Kamitatu said the China-Congo venture had rights to 10 million tonnes of copper reserves, expected to last 25 years.
From Sudan to Angola and South Africa, China has been pumping billions of dollars of loans, investments and aid into Africa in the last two years, looking to lock up oil and mineral supplies for its hungry, fast-growing economy.
African governments generally welcome China's investments as coming unfettered by Western demands for good governance and transparency. Some analysts are already portraying the Chinese as Africa's "new colonialists" as they scramble for the rich resources coveted in the past by European powers.
Copyright© Creamer Media (Pty) Ltd. All rights reserved.
Tel: +27(0)11 622 3744 Fax +27(0)11 622 9350 newsdesk@engineeringnews.co.zahttp://www.engineeringnews.co.za
By: Reuters
Published: 15 Feb 08 - 18:02
China will pump $9 billion into Congo's war-ravaged mines and infrastructure in a newly-signed partnership that could propel the African country's growth into double digits, a government minister said on Friday.
The value given by Planning Minister Olivier Kamitatu for an accord signed on January 28 by China and Democratic Republic of Congo was much higher than the $5 billion price tag originally announced last year in Congo.
"Three billion (dollars) will go towards improving the mines to a point where they can produce. Six billion will be for infrastructure," Kamitatu told Reuters in an interview.
Under last month's deal, Exim Bank of China pledged financing for major road and rail construction projects in Congo and for the rehabilitation of its strategic mining sector, badly damaged by years of war, corruption and neglect.
In return, China's Sinohydro Corp and China Railway Engineering Corp received a 68 percent stake in a joint venture with Congolese state copper miner Gecamines, with rights to two large copper and cobalt concessions.Kamitatu said the deal perfectly suited the strategic needs of his country, which is still recovering from decades of corruption and neglect and a 1998-2003 war that left infrastructure in ruins.
"We want to hit double-digit growth in 2010-2011. We are now at 6.3 percent," he said.
"We have identified the principal obstacles to that growth, among them a lack of infrastructure, a very poorly exploited energy potential, and an industrial deficit especially in the area of construction. So we are keen to pursue this partnership," Kamitatu said.
Chinese investment channelled through the mining joint venture Sicomines created by the deal would rehabilitate the Mashamba and Dikuluwe copper and cobalt mines.
Kamitatu said the aim was to revitalise Congo's once mighty mining sector, a treasure trove of largely unexploited concessions attracting the interest of major foreign companies.
"In the next five years, (Sicomines) wants to reach 400,000 tonnes per year (of copper). This will help Congo eclipse by far the production capacity of the end of the 1980s," he said.
State miner Gecamines says copper production for 2007 was 23,030 tonnes, but a number of big mining projects are under way as the former Belgian colony seeks to reap the benefits of its huge mineral resources.
At the height of production in 1989, Congo produced around 500,000 tonnes of copper annually.
Kamitatu said the China-Congo venture had rights to 10 million tonnes of copper reserves, expected to last 25 years.
From Sudan to Angola and South Africa, China has been pumping billions of dollars of loans, investments and aid into Africa in the last two years, looking to lock up oil and mineral supplies for its hungry, fast-growing economy.
African governments generally welcome China's investments as coming unfettered by Western demands for good governance and transparency. Some analysts are already portraying the Chinese as Africa's "new colonialists" as they scramble for the rich resources coveted in the past by European powers.
Copyright© Creamer Media (Pty) Ltd. All rights reserved.
Tel: +27(0)11 622 3744 Fax +27(0)11 622 9350 newsdesk@engineeringnews.co.zahttp://www.engineeringnews.co.za
Monday, February 18, 2008
Smugglers Return iPhones to China
Smugglers Return iPhones to China
The strange journey of Apple’s popular iPhone, to nearly every corner of the world, shows what happens when the world’s hottest consumer product defies a company’s attempt to slowly introduce it in new markets.
The iPhone has been swept up in a frenzy of global smuggling and word-of-mouth marketing that leads friends to ask friends, “While you’re in the
These unofficial distribution networks help explain a mystery that analysts who follow Apple have been pondering: why is there a large gap between the number of iPhones that Apple says it sold last year, about 3.7 million, and the 2.3 million that are actually registered on the networks of its wireless partners in the United States and Europe?
The answer now seems clear. For months, tourists, small entrepreneurs and smugglers of electronic goods have been buying iPhones in the
There the phones’ digital locks are broken so they can work on local cellular networks, and they are outfitted with localized software, essentially undermining Apple’s effort to introduce the phone with exclusive partnership deals, similar to its primary partnership agreement with AT&T in the United States.
“There’s no question many of them are ending up abroad,” said
For Apple, the booming overseas market for iPhones is both a sign of its marketing prowess and a blow to a business model that could be coming undone, costing the company as much as $1 billion over the next three years, according to some analysts.
But those economic realities do not play into the mind of
He and other people here often pay $450 to $600 to get a phone that sells for $400 in the
“This is even better than I thought it would be,” he said, toying with his iPhone at an upscale coffee shop. “This is definitely one of the great inventions of this century.”
Mr. Pan is among the new breed of young professionals in
Chinese sellers of iPhones say they typically get the phones from suppliers who buy them in the
Often, they say, the phones are given to members of Chinese tourist groups or Chinese airline flight attendants, who are typically paid a commission of about $30 for every phone they deliver.
Although unlocking the phone violates Apple’s purchase agreement, it does not appear to violate any laws here, though many stores may be avoiding import duties.
Considering
Indeed, within months of the release of the iPhone in the United States last June, iPhone knockoffs, or iClones as some have called them, were selling here for as little as $125. But most people opt for the real thing.
“A lot of people here want to get an iPhone,” says
Negotiations between Apple and China Mobile, the world’s biggest mobile-phone service operator with more than 350 million subscribers, broke down last month, stalling the official release of the iPhone in
“I love all of Apple’s products,” said a 27-year-old
An iPhone purchased in
For Apple, the sale of iPhones to people who ship them to
But there are forces working against that. Programmers around the world collaborate on and share programs that unlock the iPhone, racing to put out new versions when Apple updates its defenses.
While Apple has not strongly condemned unlocking, it has warned consumers that this violates the purchase agreement and can cause problems with software updates.
Some analysts say abandoning the locked phone system and allowing buyers to sign up with any carrier they choose, in any country, could spur sales.
“The model is threatened,”
An Apple spokeswoman declined to comment on the proliferation of iPhones in
The copycat models are another possible threat to Apple. Not long after the iPhone was released, research and development teams in
Some people who have used the clones say they are sophisticated and have many functions that mimic the iPhone.
In
Some of the sellers of the copycats admit the phones are a scam.
“It’s a fake iPhone, but it looks nearly the same,” said a man who answered the phone last week at the Shenzhen Sunshine Trade Company, in southern China’s biggest electronics manufacturing area. “We manufacture it by ourselves. We have our own R. &D. group and manufacturing plant. Most of our products are for export.”
Most people here seem to want the glory that comes with showing off a real iPhone to friends.
“My friends envy me a lot,” says Mr. Pan, the Web designer. “They say, “Wow, you can get an iPhone.’ ”
Mr. Chavez's Bluff
Tags:
Chavez
Mr. Chavez's Bluff
If Venezuela's strongman cut off oil exports to the United States, the first victim would be his regime.
Friday, February 15, 2008; A20
Washington Post
ONE OF the more regrettable ironies of international relations is that the United States, through its voracious consumption of oil, underwrites President Hugo Chávez's regime in Venezuela. In November alone, the United States bought more than 41 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, roughly 10 percent of all U.S. oil imports that month. If the Bush administration were really as committed to overthrowing Mr. Chávez as Mr. Chávez claims, the administration might be tempted to declare a boycott of Venezuelan oil. That would make a small but easily repaired dent in the U.S. economy, but it would devastate Venezuela, since it produces high-sulfur oil that, for the most part, can be refined only in special U.S.-based refineries.
So imagine our astonishment when Mr. Chávez himself threatened this week to cut off exports of crude oil to America. Perpetually angry at the United States, Mr. Chávez made this particular outburst because of his conflict with Exxon Mobil, the American oil multinational whose operations in Venezuela he nationalized last year. While other oil companies accepted Mr. Chávez's compensation terms and went quietly, Exxon Mobil fought the takeover through international arbitration and courts around the world. Last week, the company successfully moved to freeze $12 billion of Venezuelan assets, pending the outcome of the dispute. Enraged, Mr. Chávez announced: "If you end up freezing [Venezuelan assets] and it harms us, we're going to harm you. Do you know how? We aren't going to send oil to the United States." In an interview published Tuesday in the Venezuelan newspaper Ultimas Noticias, Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez declared the country "ready" to make good on the threat.
But someone apparently explained to Mr. Chávez that Venezuela's oil industry, already in decline because of Mr. Chávez's mismanagement, might collapse if he actually carried out his threat. And without oil money, Mr. Chávez, who lost a referendum on extending his rule two months ago, cannot finance the subsidies and social spending that buy what's left of his popular support in Venezuela. Mr. Chávez has now announced a modified, limited boycott: Henceforth, his state oil company will no longer sell crude directly to Exxon Mobil. This gesture will eventually prove meaningless as third parties come forward to buy the oil and then resell it to Exxon Mobil for refining. Also, Mr. Chávez's government declared that the boycott does not apply to high-sulfur oil from the Cerro Negro field, which can be refined only at a facility that Venezuela and Exxon Mobil jointly operate in Chalmette, La. Two cheers for Exxon Mobil. In standing up to Mr. Chávez through peaceful, legal means, it has once again exposed the hollowness of the anti-imperialism with which he justifies his rule.
If Venezuela's strongman cut off oil exports to the United States, the first victim would be his regime.
Friday, February 15, 2008; A20
Washington Post
ONE OF the more regrettable ironies of international relations is that the United States, through its voracious consumption of oil, underwrites President Hugo Chávez's regime in Venezuela. In November alone, the United States bought more than 41 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, roughly 10 percent of all U.S. oil imports that month. If the Bush administration were really as committed to overthrowing Mr. Chávez as Mr. Chávez claims, the administration might be tempted to declare a boycott of Venezuelan oil. That would make a small but easily repaired dent in the U.S. economy, but it would devastate Venezuela, since it produces high-sulfur oil that, for the most part, can be refined only in special U.S.-based refineries.
So imagine our astonishment when Mr. Chávez himself threatened this week to cut off exports of crude oil to America. Perpetually angry at the United States, Mr. Chávez made this particular outburst because of his conflict with Exxon Mobil, the American oil multinational whose operations in Venezuela he nationalized last year. While other oil companies accepted Mr. Chávez's compensation terms and went quietly, Exxon Mobil fought the takeover through international arbitration and courts around the world. Last week, the company successfully moved to freeze $12 billion of Venezuelan assets, pending the outcome of the dispute. Enraged, Mr. Chávez announced: "If you end up freezing [Venezuelan assets] and it harms us, we're going to harm you. Do you know how? We aren't going to send oil to the United States." In an interview published Tuesday in the Venezuelan newspaper Ultimas Noticias, Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez declared the country "ready" to make good on the threat.
But someone apparently explained to Mr. Chávez that Venezuela's oil industry, already in decline because of Mr. Chávez's mismanagement, might collapse if he actually carried out his threat. And without oil money, Mr. Chávez, who lost a referendum on extending his rule two months ago, cannot finance the subsidies and social spending that buy what's left of his popular support in Venezuela. Mr. Chávez has now announced a modified, limited boycott: Henceforth, his state oil company will no longer sell crude directly to Exxon Mobil. This gesture will eventually prove meaningless as third parties come forward to buy the oil and then resell it to Exxon Mobil for refining. Also, Mr. Chávez's government declared that the boycott does not apply to high-sulfur oil from the Cerro Negro field, which can be refined only at a facility that Venezuela and Exxon Mobil jointly operate in Chalmette, La. Two cheers for Exxon Mobil. In standing up to Mr. Chávez through peaceful, legal means, it has once again exposed the hollowness of the anti-imperialism with which he justifies his rule.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Alert on fraudulent transfers of petroassets to PEPs
Alert on fraudulent transfers of petroassets to PEPs
Following the asset seizure orders obtained by multi-national oil giant Exxon/Mobil in courts in the UK, Holland, and the Netherlands Antilles, against Petroleos de Venezuela (PdVSA), the state-owned oil company, reliable reports have indicated that PdVSA plans to execute fraudulent transfers of its assets, to block collection of the multi-million dollar debts owed to a number of oil companies for nationalization of private property in Venezuela. The recipients said are to be Politically Exposed Persons (PEPs) who are closely linked to the government, and will reportedly include some of the controversial front-men known there as "testaferros," or bagmen; individuals who have been accused of funneling Venezuelan state funds to radical leftist political organizations seeking the overthrow of democratic governments in Latin America. These transfers, intended to place assets out of the reach of creditors, constitute fraud, and they can be set aside by the courts in the countries where they are located. Also, any "payments" received by the recipients, to assure their cooperation, may be considered money laundering if local law enforcement agencies bring criminal charges. Bankers involved with these transactions are warned that there will be unacceptable levels of risk involved for financial institutions that are participants.
Sources inside Venezuela
These "transfers" will obviously not be conventional sales, for market value, of these massive assets, which are worth millions or billions of dollars, and will constitute fraudulent transfers designed to impede creditors in the seizure and collection of assets. Prudence dictates that involvement with any phase of these transactions is to be totally avoided, as the financial institution, as well and the individual bank officers and employees may be exposed to civil action and criminal prosecution in a number of jurisdictions, as well as reputation damage.
Congelados por la vergüenza
Congelados por la vergüenza
Caracas, martes 12 de febrero, 2008
El Universal, Opinión
"Congelan 12.000 millones de dólares en bienes de Petróleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa) por disputa con Exxon" (El Universal, 07/02/2008 y en una pila de periódicos nacionales e internacionales).
Congelados los precios, congelado el control de cambio, congelados los anaqueles y las cavas, congelados los cánones de arrendamiento, congelados los peajes, congelados, también, ahora, estamos los venezolanos, por el frío que nos atraviesa el espinazo de purita vergüenza que nos causa el congelamiento de los activos mundiales de nuestra industria nacional, por más de 12 mil millones de dólares, gracias a la "barbaridad, imprudencia, locura, insensatez, error, disparate, estupidez, necedad" (sinónimos de "burrada", Diccionario de Sinónimos y Antónimos, Santillana) del peor presidente que ha tenido Venezuela desde 1811 hasta esta fecha.
Es imperdonable que un gobernante, cuya función es servir al pueblo con la diligencia de un buen padre de familia, fomente el odio, apañe la violencia, destruya la economía, arruine a Pdvsa y vulnere la seguridad de los ciudadanos. Pero más grave aún es que lo haga impunemente, sin rendir cuentas a nadie y sin que nadie se las exija en el propio país. Tiene que ser una empresa extranjera la que mueva los resortes de la administración de justicia de otros países para que se sancione el mal proceder de un jefe de Estado que, equivocadamente, piensa que puede hacer y deshacer compromisos y contratos a su antojo, y que puede maltratar y ofender al prójimo sin consecuencias.
Hugo Chávez nos ha expuesto como nadie a la crítica, al deshonor y a la vergüenza ante nosotros mismos y ante el mundo. A la inmoralidad de su gobierno se suman su incompetencia y estrepitosa incapacidad para gobernar el país, con la adocenada complicidad de los representantes de los poderes Legislativo, Judicial, Electoral y Ciudadano, amén del apoyo de un grupo de devotos que no ven más allá de su boca o de su beca. Cuesta creer que de todos los que se fosilizan dentro de esos bloques de hielo, inoperantes e inútiles, en que han degenerado nuestras instituciones, no haya un diputado, o un magistrado, con un mínimo de sentido común y de responsabilidad, capaz de descongelar su propio miedo y derretir su sumisión, para convencerse y convencer a sus pares de la necesidad de que prospere un antejuicio de mérito contra el Presidente de la República.
¿Será posible que una orden judicial como ésta, que bloquea las cuentas de Pdvsa en los bancos de todo el mundo, que congela los bienes de la principal empresa nacional, no remuerda la conciencia de esa gente, no altere su ritmo cardiaco, no perturbe su sueño? ¿Será que un acontecimiento tan bochornoso no nos duele a todos ni nos duele igual?
En vano saldrán a predicar patriotismo, a pregonar soberanía, a rifar revolución, a defender nacionalismo. Ha quedado fehacientemente demostrada la inescrupulosidad con la que Hugo Chávez y sus lacayos abusan del poder, estafan al pueblo y enajenan el patrimonio nacional.
http://opinion.eluniversal.com/2008/02/12/opi_1459_art_congelados-por-la-ve_12A1355443.shtml
lilianafasciani@yahoo.es
http://lilianafasciani.blogspot.com/
Caracas, martes 12 de febrero, 2008
El Universal, Opinión
"Congelan 12.000 millones de dólares en bienes de Petróleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa) por disputa con Exxon" (El Universal, 07/02/2008 y en una pila de periódicos nacionales e internacionales).
Congelados los precios, congelado el control de cambio, congelados los anaqueles y las cavas, congelados los cánones de arrendamiento, congelados los peajes, congelados, también, ahora, estamos los venezolanos, por el frío que nos atraviesa el espinazo de purita vergüenza que nos causa el congelamiento de los activos mundiales de nuestra industria nacional, por más de 12 mil millones de dólares, gracias a la "barbaridad, imprudencia, locura, insensatez, error, disparate, estupidez, necedad" (sinónimos de "burrada", Diccionario de Sinónimos y Antónimos, Santillana) del peor presidente que ha tenido Venezuela desde 1811 hasta esta fecha.
Es imperdonable que un gobernante, cuya función es servir al pueblo con la diligencia de un buen padre de familia, fomente el odio, apañe la violencia, destruya la economía, arruine a Pdvsa y vulnere la seguridad de los ciudadanos. Pero más grave aún es que lo haga impunemente, sin rendir cuentas a nadie y sin que nadie se las exija en el propio país. Tiene que ser una empresa extranjera la que mueva los resortes de la administración de justicia de otros países para que se sancione el mal proceder de un jefe de Estado que, equivocadamente, piensa que puede hacer y deshacer compromisos y contratos a su antojo, y que puede maltratar y ofender al prójimo sin consecuencias.
Hugo Chávez nos ha expuesto como nadie a la crítica, al deshonor y a la vergüenza ante nosotros mismos y ante el mundo. A la inmoralidad de su gobierno se suman su incompetencia y estrepitosa incapacidad para gobernar el país, con la adocenada complicidad de los representantes de los poderes Legislativo, Judicial, Electoral y Ciudadano, amén del apoyo de un grupo de devotos que no ven más allá de su boca o de su beca. Cuesta creer que de todos los que se fosilizan dentro de esos bloques de hielo, inoperantes e inútiles, en que han degenerado nuestras instituciones, no haya un diputado, o un magistrado, con un mínimo de sentido común y de responsabilidad, capaz de descongelar su propio miedo y derretir su sumisión, para convencerse y convencer a sus pares de la necesidad de que prospere un antejuicio de mérito contra el Presidente de la República.
¿Será posible que una orden judicial como ésta, que bloquea las cuentas de Pdvsa en los bancos de todo el mundo, que congela los bienes de la principal empresa nacional, no remuerda la conciencia de esa gente, no altere su ritmo cardiaco, no perturbe su sueño? ¿Será que un acontecimiento tan bochornoso no nos duele a todos ni nos duele igual?
En vano saldrán a predicar patriotismo, a pregonar soberanía, a rifar revolución, a defender nacionalismo. Ha quedado fehacientemente demostrada la inescrupulosidad con la que Hugo Chávez y sus lacayos abusan del poder, estafan al pueblo y enajenan el patrimonio nacional.
http://opinion.eluniversal.com/2008/02/12/opi_1459_art_congelados-por-la-ve_12A1355443.shtml
lilianafasciani@yahoo.es
http://lilianafasciani.blogspot.com/
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Journeys: France - In Tavel, Paying Homage to the Rosé of Kings - Travel - New York Times
In Tavel, Paying Homage to the Rosé of Kings
By ELLEN KAYE
February 10, 2008
Journeys France
NY Times
TAVEL, a town of 1,600 perched at the edge of the Languedoc, on the brink of Provence, is the veritable cradle of French rosé. A staple of the ancient papal court in nearby Avignon and a favorite of Louis XIV and Philippe le Bel (earning it the dual sobriquets Rosé of Kings and King of Rosés), Tavel was the first rosé to be designated AOC (Appellation d’Origine Contrôlée). The appellation has stayed true to its roots; to be called a Tavel, it must be a rosé.
For those of us who revere the name Tavel — like my husband, Andy Besch, who marks the beginning of each spring with the announcement of pitchers and catchers reporting to training camp and the appearance of those first few cases of rosé at his New York City wine shop — a visit to this cherished spot is almost like a pilgrimage to Mecca.
What makes the rosé from Tavel so special? “It’s because rosé is what we do,” said Pascal Lafond as he opened a bottle of his Domaine Lafond Roc-Épine at lunch on the terrace of the Auberge de Tavel this past August. “Others save their best vines for red, if that’s what they have their reputation for, and the rosé comes after. For us, the rosé comes first.”
“It’s a classic,” said Séverine Lemoine, a third-generation winemaker sitting across the table. “It’s more complex. It’s a wine for consuming all year.”
This debate over the unique qualities of the Tavel rosé was in many ways the continuation of a discussion that had taken place back in New York last January, one that eventually led to the journey to Tavel itself.
Eric Pfifferling of L’Anglore winery, seated to my left at a winemakers’ event in TriBeCa, was talking about his dream to share his passion for New York with his two teenage sons back in Tavel. On my right, Andy was rhapsodizing about his passion for rosé. In the middle, the designated translator (me) brokered a house-swapping deal, secretly praying that there would be more to this place than just grapes.
Eight months later, we arrived in Tavel as the Pfifferling family was preparing to depart for our New York brownstone, which they would do, Eric insisted, right after taking us jet-lagged city mice on a tour of the vines.
One thing is plain to see, even for the layman; the terroir of Tavel is unique. The low rainfall, the summer heat, and the protective winds of the mistral make for rich and hearty grapes. Then there are the rocks. A single journey through Tavel’s roughly 10-mile Route du Vignoble is like a geological field study. On the western loop, the vines force their way through slate covered with chunks of chalky limestone, while on the east they bake in “galets roulés” — smooth, round stones formed by the centuries of floodwaters that poured through the Rhône Valley after the last ice age. The southernmost vines stretch lazily in the sun over a fine, sandy soil.
Since only around 200,000 bottles of Tavel make their way to the United States each year (out of an annual production of five million), a voyage to the source is the most surefire way to slake an ardent thirst. Thirty of Tavel’s wineries are open to visitors. For one-stop sampling, the Caveau St.-Vincent, smack in the center of town, offers 30 Tavel rosés for tasting and buying. And for those sticking around for a while, the best deal in town is at Les Vignerons de Tavel, the local cooperative, where a 19-liter box (the equivalent of about 13 ½ bottles!) can be had for 15.50 euros ($23.25 at $1.50 to the euro).
I was delighted to find that sticking around Tavel for a while can be a surprisingly rich experience, even for those for whom rosé is just another shade of pink. A walk along the Route du Vignoble or one of the marked hiking trails around the town is a great way to prime the senses for a day of tasting. A dip in the town pool, where for 2.30 euros anyone is welcome, is a perfect refresher. And an early-evening game of tennis on a town court will whet the appetite for dinner in the tree-lined garden of La Genestière, as the southern sky fades from blue to rosé to black.
Situated between the Cévennes Mountains, the marshes of the Camargue and the lush greenery of Provence, Tavel provides a convenient home base for a variety of excursions. Twenty-five minutes to the west sits the charming town of Uzès, with its 11th-century buildings and sophisticated shops, and, on market day, stall after stall of fresh local produce, creamy Pélardon goat cheese, olives cured in dozens of different seasonings, fougasse (a doughy disk that comes sweet or savory), sausages, spices and the requisite Provençal fabrics and piles of lavender by-products.
Practically around the corner from Tavel is the Pont du Gard, where after viewing the well-preserved remains of the spectacular Roman aqueduct, one can hike, picnic, swim and canoe along the river. St.-Rémy is 45 minutes away, and an hour and a half south will put you into the salty waters of the Mediterranean — ideally after a bowl of juicy mussels or tiny tellines in one of the bustling seaside resort towns of Stes.-Marie-de-la-Mer or Le Grau du Roi.
In summer, point the car in any direction and you’ll find a town in celebration — medieval festivals, garlic festivals, ceramic festivals and the ubiquitous carnivals with their bejeweled carousels and sticky barbe à papa (cotton candy). Signs plastered on lampposts everywhere announce “fêtes votives,” patron saint commemorations in “villages de bouvine”— literally “towns of cattle,” in this case, bulls.
In fact, in this area most of the summertime spectacles seem to have something to do with bulls. When you hear the overture to “Carmen,” it’s time to get out of the way, fast. Bull-herding exhibitions, right through the center of a town, are a common sight.
The best time to go? For me, taking advantage of the relative quiet of August for both the winemaker and the wine retailer was the only choice, and in my opinion a good one. My lunchtime companions at the Auberge didn’t quite agree. Sandra Guy, communications attaché for the Syndicat Viticole de l’Appellation Tavel, insisted that spring was the time to visit. “No, maybe autumn,” she corrected herself. “September, when the harvest begins and the colors start to change.”
“But the wines?” said Christophe Chaudeyrac, president of the Syndicat. “I enjoy them in spring, and even more in winter, for Christmas and fêtes de famille. It’s too hot in the summer.”
“Ah, the smell of Provence,” he sighed as a bowl of homemade pistou was placed before him. “Of course, you know Tavel rosés are made for food,” he said, swirling a glass of Ms. Lemoine’s Domaine la Rocalière 2006 in his glass and holding it up to the noonday sun.
ON THE BRINK OF PROVENCE
Tavel is a 10-minute drive from the Avignon TGV train station, and 15 minutes from the Avignon airport.
The Auberge de Tavel (Voie Romaine; 33-4-66-50-03-41 ; www.auberge-de-tavel.com) is a charming hotel built in a former boys school, with 10 rooms and one suite, and a swimming pool. Double rooms begin at 90 euros per night ($135 at $1.50 to the euro). Its restaurant offers elegant meals prepared by the owner, with prix fixe menus beginning at 27 euros, and a six-course tasting menu at 72 euros.
Restaurant la Genestière (Chemin de Cravailleux; 33-4-66-50-94-56 ; www.genestiere.com), with its shaded garden and formal dining room, offers a four-course seasonal menu for 29 euros.
Set back from the main street on the Place du Seigneur is the tasting room and wine shop Caveau St.-Vincent (Place du Seigneur; 33-4-66-50-24-10 ). The Tavel wine cooperative, Les Vignerons de Tavel (Route de la Commanderie; 33-4-66-50-03-57 ) is open seven days a week. Most of Tavel’s wineries welcome visitors, but it is best to call ahead to check the opening hours. All are easily visible from the road, or clearly marked by signs. A fairly comprehensive list can be found at www.tavel.tm.fr.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
Journeys: France - In Tavel, Paying Homage to the Rosé of Kings - Travel - New York Times
By ELLEN KAYE
February 10, 2008
Journeys France
NY Times
TAVEL, a town of 1,600 perched at the edge of the Languedoc, on the brink of Provence, is the veritable cradle of French rosé. A staple of the ancient papal court in nearby Avignon and a favorite of Louis XIV and Philippe le Bel (earning it the dual sobriquets Rosé of Kings and King of Rosés), Tavel was the first rosé to be designated AOC (Appellation d’Origine Contrôlée). The appellation has stayed true to its roots; to be called a Tavel, it must be a rosé.
For those of us who revere the name Tavel — like my husband, Andy Besch, who marks the beginning of each spring with the announcement of pitchers and catchers reporting to training camp and the appearance of those first few cases of rosé at his New York City wine shop — a visit to this cherished spot is almost like a pilgrimage to Mecca.
What makes the rosé from Tavel so special? “It’s because rosé is what we do,” said Pascal Lafond as he opened a bottle of his Domaine Lafond Roc-Épine at lunch on the terrace of the Auberge de Tavel this past August. “Others save their best vines for red, if that’s what they have their reputation for, and the rosé comes after. For us, the rosé comes first.”
“It’s a classic,” said Séverine Lemoine, a third-generation winemaker sitting across the table. “It’s more complex. It’s a wine for consuming all year.”
This debate over the unique qualities of the Tavel rosé was in many ways the continuation of a discussion that had taken place back in New York last January, one that eventually led to the journey to Tavel itself.
Eric Pfifferling of L’Anglore winery, seated to my left at a winemakers’ event in TriBeCa, was talking about his dream to share his passion for New York with his two teenage sons back in Tavel. On my right, Andy was rhapsodizing about his passion for rosé. In the middle, the designated translator (me) brokered a house-swapping deal, secretly praying that there would be more to this place than just grapes.
Eight months later, we arrived in Tavel as the Pfifferling family was preparing to depart for our New York brownstone, which they would do, Eric insisted, right after taking us jet-lagged city mice on a tour of the vines.
One thing is plain to see, even for the layman; the terroir of Tavel is unique. The low rainfall, the summer heat, and the protective winds of the mistral make for rich and hearty grapes. Then there are the rocks. A single journey through Tavel’s roughly 10-mile Route du Vignoble is like a geological field study. On the western loop, the vines force their way through slate covered with chunks of chalky limestone, while on the east they bake in “galets roulés” — smooth, round stones formed by the centuries of floodwaters that poured through the Rhône Valley after the last ice age. The southernmost vines stretch lazily in the sun over a fine, sandy soil.
Since only around 200,000 bottles of Tavel make their way to the United States each year (out of an annual production of five million), a voyage to the source is the most surefire way to slake an ardent thirst. Thirty of Tavel’s wineries are open to visitors. For one-stop sampling, the Caveau St.-Vincent, smack in the center of town, offers 30 Tavel rosés for tasting and buying. And for those sticking around for a while, the best deal in town is at Les Vignerons de Tavel, the local cooperative, where a 19-liter box (the equivalent of about 13 ½ bottles!) can be had for 15.50 euros ($23.25 at $1.50 to the euro).
I was delighted to find that sticking around Tavel for a while can be a surprisingly rich experience, even for those for whom rosé is just another shade of pink. A walk along the Route du Vignoble or one of the marked hiking trails around the town is a great way to prime the senses for a day of tasting. A dip in the town pool, where for 2.30 euros anyone is welcome, is a perfect refresher. And an early-evening game of tennis on a town court will whet the appetite for dinner in the tree-lined garden of La Genestière, as the southern sky fades from blue to rosé to black.
Situated between the Cévennes Mountains, the marshes of the Camargue and the lush greenery of Provence, Tavel provides a convenient home base for a variety of excursions. Twenty-five minutes to the west sits the charming town of Uzès, with its 11th-century buildings and sophisticated shops, and, on market day, stall after stall of fresh local produce, creamy Pélardon goat cheese, olives cured in dozens of different seasonings, fougasse (a doughy disk that comes sweet or savory), sausages, spices and the requisite Provençal fabrics and piles of lavender by-products.
Practically around the corner from Tavel is the Pont du Gard, where after viewing the well-preserved remains of the spectacular Roman aqueduct, one can hike, picnic, swim and canoe along the river. St.-Rémy is 45 minutes away, and an hour and a half south will put you into the salty waters of the Mediterranean — ideally after a bowl of juicy mussels or tiny tellines in one of the bustling seaside resort towns of Stes.-Marie-de-la-Mer or Le Grau du Roi.
In summer, point the car in any direction and you’ll find a town in celebration — medieval festivals, garlic festivals, ceramic festivals and the ubiquitous carnivals with their bejeweled carousels and sticky barbe à papa (cotton candy). Signs plastered on lampposts everywhere announce “fêtes votives,” patron saint commemorations in “villages de bouvine”— literally “towns of cattle,” in this case, bulls.
In fact, in this area most of the summertime spectacles seem to have something to do with bulls. When you hear the overture to “Carmen,” it’s time to get out of the way, fast. Bull-herding exhibitions, right through the center of a town, are a common sight.
The best time to go? For me, taking advantage of the relative quiet of August for both the winemaker and the wine retailer was the only choice, and in my opinion a good one. My lunchtime companions at the Auberge didn’t quite agree. Sandra Guy, communications attaché for the Syndicat Viticole de l’Appellation Tavel, insisted that spring was the time to visit. “No, maybe autumn,” she corrected herself. “September, when the harvest begins and the colors start to change.”
“But the wines?” said Christophe Chaudeyrac, president of the Syndicat. “I enjoy them in spring, and even more in winter, for Christmas and fêtes de famille. It’s too hot in the summer.”
“Ah, the smell of Provence,” he sighed as a bowl of homemade pistou was placed before him. “Of course, you know Tavel rosés are made for food,” he said, swirling a glass of Ms. Lemoine’s Domaine la Rocalière 2006 in his glass and holding it up to the noonday sun.
ON THE BRINK OF PROVENCE
Tavel is a 10-minute drive from the Avignon TGV train station, and 15 minutes from the Avignon airport.
The Auberge de Tavel (Voie Romaine; 33-4-66-50-03-41 ; www.auberge-de-tavel.com) is a charming hotel built in a former boys school, with 10 rooms and one suite, and a swimming pool. Double rooms begin at 90 euros per night ($135 at $1.50 to the euro). Its restaurant offers elegant meals prepared by the owner, with prix fixe menus beginning at 27 euros, and a six-course tasting menu at 72 euros.
Restaurant la Genestière (Chemin de Cravailleux; 33-4-66-50-94-56 ; www.genestiere.com), with its shaded garden and formal dining room, offers a four-course seasonal menu for 29 euros.
Set back from the main street on the Place du Seigneur is the tasting room and wine shop Caveau St.-Vincent (Place du Seigneur; 33-4-66-50-24-10 ). The Tavel wine cooperative, Les Vignerons de Tavel (Route de la Commanderie; 33-4-66-50-03-57 ) is open seven days a week. Most of Tavel’s wineries welcome visitors, but it is best to call ahead to check the opening hours. All are easily visible from the road, or clearly marked by signs. A fairly comprehensive list can be found at www.tavel.tm.fr.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
Journeys: France - In Tavel, Paying Homage to the Rosé of Kings - Travel - New York Times
Monday, February 11, 2008
Dolar Paralelo Online: Venezuela: Venezuela estaría movilizando su ingresos al UBS en Suiza
Venezuela: Venezuela estaría movilizando su ingresos al UBS en Suiza
Venezuela empezó a movilizar sus ingresos petroleros a bancos suizos para impedir un posible embargo de fondos por parte de Exxon Mobil, en una batalla legal que enfrenta al presidente Hugo Chávez con la mayor compañía de América.
La gigante con sede en Texas logró una medida judicial que congela activos pertenecientes a la estatal Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), en una maniobra para asegurar el pago de una compensación tras la toma el año pasado un multimillonario proyecto que operaba Exxon .
Chávez juró el domingo devolver el golpe, amenazando con parar las ventas de crudo a Estados Unidos si mantiene su "guerra económica" contra Venezuela a través de delegados como Exxon.El Gobierno del presidente George W. Bush desestimó la advertencia como "algo que hemos escuchado antes."
Operadores dijeron a Reuters que PDVSA ha dicho a sus clientes que todos sus pagos deberían ser hechos en el banco UBS en Suiza, días después de que abogados de Exxon informaran a bancos de las Antillas Holandesas que las cuentas de PDVSA debían mantener sus balances actuales.
"Todo tiene que ir a UBS en Suiza ahora," dijo un operador quien pidió no ser nombrado. Un portavoz de PDVSA indicó que no tenían un comentario inmediato respecto al asunto.La táctica de Exxon es el mayor desafío hasta ahora de una gigante petrolera contra gobiernos desde Rusia a Ecuador que han aprovechado los precios récord del crudo para aumentar su control sobre concesiones de firmas extranjeras.
Publicado por Dolar Paralelo en 8:51
Dolar Paralelo Online: Venezuela: Venezuela estaría movilizando su ingresos al UBS en Suiza
Venezuela empezó a movilizar sus ingresos petroleros a bancos suizos para impedir un posible embargo de fondos por parte de Exxon Mobil, en una batalla legal que enfrenta al presidente Hugo Chávez con la mayor compañía de América.
La gigante con sede en Texas logró una medida judicial que congela activos pertenecientes a la estatal Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), en una maniobra para asegurar el pago de una compensación tras la toma el año pasado un multimillonario proyecto que operaba Exxon .
Chávez juró el domingo devolver el golpe, amenazando con parar las ventas de crudo a Estados Unidos si mantiene su "guerra económica" contra Venezuela a través de delegados como Exxon.El Gobierno del presidente George W. Bush desestimó la advertencia como "algo que hemos escuchado antes."
Operadores dijeron a Reuters que PDVSA ha dicho a sus clientes que todos sus pagos deberían ser hechos en el banco UBS en Suiza, días después de que abogados de Exxon informaran a bancos de las Antillas Holandesas que las cuentas de PDVSA debían mantener sus balances actuales.
"Todo tiene que ir a UBS en Suiza ahora," dijo un operador quien pidió no ser nombrado. Un portavoz de PDVSA indicó que no tenían un comentario inmediato respecto al asunto.La táctica de Exxon es el mayor desafío hasta ahora de una gigante petrolera contra gobiernos desde Rusia a Ecuador que han aprovechado los precios récord del crudo para aumentar su control sobre concesiones de firmas extranjeras.
Publicado por Dolar Paralelo en 8:51
Dolar Paralelo Online: Venezuela: Venezuela estaría movilizando su ingresos al UBS en Suiza
Sunday, February 10, 2008
More on the electoral shehanigans of the Chavez government
Tags:
Chavez
More on the electoral shehanigans of the Chavez government
Mudanzas que pesan
Al menos la mitad de los electores venezolanos son nuevos inscritos o fueron migrados de centro de votación. De cara a los comicios regionales, esos votos pueden ser decisivos.
Por Oscar Medina
Expediente, El Universal.com, Nacional y Política
Caracas, domingo 10 de febrero, 2008
Un gran invento no fue. La práctica existe desde hace mucho tiempo y fue en 1812 cuando se le dio el nombre que hasta hoy persiste: gerrymandering. Se trata de un modo de distribución de los circuitos electorales para favorecer o desfavorecer a candidatos o grupos. La versión adaptada al sistema electoral venezolano, vista desde un plano general, es simple: incrementas la población votante, migras electores y creas centros de votación en lugares difíciles de supervisar. Eso es lo que afirman los investigadores de la organización Esdata, un grupo conformado por profesionales de la estadística, física, matemáticas, ingenierías y el derecho que ha hecho del sistema electoral criollo su objeto de estudio con un ánimo de contraloría ciudadana.
La situación se ha denunciado antes: desde 1998 hasta hoy la cantidad de electores se duplicó y son muchas las explicaciones que se dan a favor o en contra de este logro de la revolución. Pero de cara a este año de elecciones regionales y municipales, la estrategia gubernamental podría tener impacto definitivo en los resultados de la contienda. En su análisis la gente de Esdata encuentra cosas que despiertan suspicacias: "En este momento la mitad de los electores o son nuevos o fueron migrados a su centros de votación actual", señala Humberto Villalobos, arquitecto miembro de la organización. "Y analizando los centros", completa el ingeniero y docente de la UCV, Gustavo Delfino: "Encontramos que donde más votantes nuevos o migrados hay, los resultados favorecen más al oficialismo".
Esa suspicacia expresada en números indica que en el Registro Electoral Permanente en 2006 se encontraban 7,3 millones de personas originarios (para el estudio, inscritos en su centro electoral desde 1998) y 8,2 millones de electores nuevos o migrados de otras zonas. Es decir, por cada elector de 1998 ahora hay 1,12 nuevos o migrados. Eso en cuanto al total de país.
También hicieron un análisis estadístico en función las mesas de votación caracterizadas en cuatro tipologías. Mesas Tipo 1 son aquellas donde por cada elector originario hay en promedio medio elector nuevo o migrado. De esas encontraron 3.136 en las presidenciales que enfrentaron a Hugo Chávez contra Manuel Rosales. Y representan el voto de 1.552.914 electores. En estas mesas Tipo 1, Chávez aventajó con 52% sobre 48%.
13.318 fueron las mesas Tipo 2: por cada originario tienen ¾ de nuevos o migrados y totalizan 6.637.143 electores. Aquí la ventaja de Chávez aumentó a 61%. En las mesas Tipo 3, encontramos 1 ½ migrados o nuevos por cada votante ya inscrito para 1998. Son 8.863 mesas con 4.424.934 electores. En ellas el Presidente ganó con mayor comodidad: 65%. Y en las 6.791 mesas Tipo 4, las que inscriben a 5 nuevos o migrados por cada originario, con 2.949.518 electores; obtuvo hasta 71%.
Otra forma de poner en evidencia el peso de estas movidas dentro del REP se intenta con una muestra que incluye el 2% de mesas, en que se encuentran en mayor porcentaje un tipo específico de elector. "Estamos hablando de 2% de 33 mil mesas", advierte Villalobos: "Son entonces 660 mesas, una muestra porcentual superior a las de las encuestas que miden intención de voto".
En las mesas con mayor cantidad de votantes originales (no migrados), Rosales obtuvo 52% y Chávez 48%. Fueron las únicas donde ganó el opositor. Las que tienen más originales migrados (inscritos en 1998, pero mudados de centro posteriormente) arrojaron 63% a favor de Chávez. Las mesas con más votantes nuevos apoyaron a Chávez con 71% y en las que hubo más nuevos migrados, la diferencia a su favor aumentó a 74%.
En el actual REP, denuncian en Esdata, 50% de los electores son nuevos y migrados. En otras palabras: en cada centro de votación la mitad de los que allí concurren entran bajo esas características. La situación rebasa el promedio en los estados Amazonas, Barinas, Bolívar y Táchira -y es elevada en general en las regiones fronterizas-, alcanzando el pico más alto: 58%. En contraste, Falcón cuenta la menor proporción: 46%, que es igualmente considerable. De los 11 mil centros existentes, 3.843 tienen más de 60% de electores nuevos o migrados.
Como arroz
La evolución resulta interesante. En el caso de los "originales migrados", esos que ya en 1998 estaban en el REP pero que fueron cambiados de centro, en el año 2000 registran 355 mil votantes. Entre 2000 y 2003 se sumaron otros 132 mil. Y los mayores saltos vinieron a continuación: 865 mil más en 2004 y 1.308.000 en 2006.
Los nuevos, esos que se van incorporando al REP, también tuvieron sus apariciones importantes en momentos clave como el referendo revocatorio y las últimas presidenciales. En el año 2000 se inscribieron 648 mil personas. En 2003 son apenas 307 mil. Pero en el periodo entre 2003 y 2004 se sumaron 1.890.000 y entre 2004 y 2006 la cifra aumentó hasta 2.060.000. El año pasado, informó el CNE, se incorporaron 188 mil nuevos. Los que responden a la condición de nuevos migrados totalizaban 12 mil entre 1998 y 2003, pero al momento del revocatorio ya eran 113 mil. Y para las presidenciales otros 523 mil individuos.
"Lo que hace esto digno de ser estudiado es el crecimiento repentino", explica el abogado y ex director del otrora Consejo Supremo Electoral, Alfredo Weil: "Estamos en presencia de incrementos que no se relacionan con la historia electoral del país y el CNE se niega a cumplir con la obligación de suministrar a los partidos políticos las direcciones de los inscritos en el REP, tal como indica el artículo 95 de la Ley Orgánica del Sufragio". Weil explica que el CNE se apoya en una decisión de la Sala Constitucional del TSJ de agosto del año 2000 que negó el acceso a resultados electorales a la Red de Veedores de la UCAB. "Dicen que eso viola la privacidad de la gente".
El documento advierte que el "acceso ilimitado a la información electoral por parte de particulares, conlleva a que se enteren no sólo de quien ejerció o no el derecho al voto, sino de sus direcciones y otros datos que pudieran constituir intromisión en la vida privada de otros". Pero sólo habla de "particulares" y en ningún momento deja por fuera a los partidos políticos. Y, de acuerdo a Esdata, esas organizaciones no tienen la información completa de los nuevos electores.
Ellos han hecho el intento de encontrar a algunos. Escogieron el barrio José Félix Ribas, de Petare: "La densidad de población aquí es brutal, es un barrio consolidado en el que no hay forma que pueda entrar mucha gente a vivir. Sin embargo, entre 2003 y 2006 se duplicó la cantidad de electores", detalla Villalobos: "Junto con miembros de AD intentamos buscar a algunos de los nuevos o migrados inscritos en el REP para votar en esa zona. Hicimos una lista de 200 personas, pero no encontramos a ninguno. Sencillamente no vivían en el lugar. Luego organizamos a un grupo de habitantes del José Félix Ribas, les entregamos las listas de nombres por centro de votación. Al mes nos dijeron que no podían seguir investigando porque los habían amenazado. Y, claro, no encontraron a nadie".
Las migraciones y el abrupto crecimiento del REP forman parte de asignaturas pendientes para la gente de Esdata. Y aunque no albergan mayores esperanzas, insisten en que los partidos reiteren la solicitud de la información completa sobre los electores. Y todavía más: que fijen su atención también en la selección de los miembros de las mesas de votación que, según han denunciado, desde 2006 no cumple con la letra de la Ley Orgánica del Sufragio.
"La otra parte del esquema oficialista es controlar los centros de votación", acusa Guillermo Salas, también de Esdata: "Hay muchos nuevos y migrados, fabrican cédulas que no tienen a nadie detrás y las ubican en centros controlados por ellos". En su sitio web (http://www.esdata.info) identifican situaciones "interesantes": 1.921 centros en los que al menos dos miembros de mesa están en nómina del Ministerio de Educación y no pasan de 4 años de servicio; 4.772 en los que más de 60% (12 de 18) de los miembros de mesa no estaban preseleccionados por el CNE y 5.392 donde más de 60% (12 de 18) de los miembros de mesa son nuevos o migrados. En 2007 repitieron las mismas personas en las mesas y, anticipan en Esdata, este año podrían operar el mismo esquema que se salta los criterios formales.
eluniversal.com
Mudanzas que pesan
Al menos la mitad de los electores venezolanos son nuevos inscritos o fueron migrados de centro de votación. De cara a los comicios regionales, esos votos pueden ser decisivos.
Por Oscar Medina
Expediente, El Universal.com, Nacional y Política
Caracas, domingo 10 de febrero, 2008
Un gran invento no fue. La práctica existe desde hace mucho tiempo y fue en 1812 cuando se le dio el nombre que hasta hoy persiste: gerrymandering. Se trata de un modo de distribución de los circuitos electorales para favorecer o desfavorecer a candidatos o grupos. La versión adaptada al sistema electoral venezolano, vista desde un plano general, es simple: incrementas la población votante, migras electores y creas centros de votación en lugares difíciles de supervisar. Eso es lo que afirman los investigadores de la organización Esdata, un grupo conformado por profesionales de la estadística, física, matemáticas, ingenierías y el derecho que ha hecho del sistema electoral criollo su objeto de estudio con un ánimo de contraloría ciudadana.
La situación se ha denunciado antes: desde 1998 hasta hoy la cantidad de electores se duplicó y son muchas las explicaciones que se dan a favor o en contra de este logro de la revolución. Pero de cara a este año de elecciones regionales y municipales, la estrategia gubernamental podría tener impacto definitivo en los resultados de la contienda. En su análisis la gente de Esdata encuentra cosas que despiertan suspicacias: "En este momento la mitad de los electores o son nuevos o fueron migrados a su centros de votación actual", señala Humberto Villalobos, arquitecto miembro de la organización. "Y analizando los centros", completa el ingeniero y docente de la UCV, Gustavo Delfino: "Encontramos que donde más votantes nuevos o migrados hay, los resultados favorecen más al oficialismo".
Esa suspicacia expresada en números indica que en el Registro Electoral Permanente en 2006 se encontraban 7,3 millones de personas originarios (para el estudio, inscritos en su centro electoral desde 1998) y 8,2 millones de electores nuevos o migrados de otras zonas. Es decir, por cada elector de 1998 ahora hay 1,12 nuevos o migrados. Eso en cuanto al total de país.
También hicieron un análisis estadístico en función las mesas de votación caracterizadas en cuatro tipologías. Mesas Tipo 1 son aquellas donde por cada elector originario hay en promedio medio elector nuevo o migrado. De esas encontraron 3.136 en las presidenciales que enfrentaron a Hugo Chávez contra Manuel Rosales. Y representan el voto de 1.552.914 electores. En estas mesas Tipo 1, Chávez aventajó con 52% sobre 48%.
13.318 fueron las mesas Tipo 2: por cada originario tienen ¾ de nuevos o migrados y totalizan 6.637.143 electores. Aquí la ventaja de Chávez aumentó a 61%. En las mesas Tipo 3, encontramos 1 ½ migrados o nuevos por cada votante ya inscrito para 1998. Son 8.863 mesas con 4.424.934 electores. En ellas el Presidente ganó con mayor comodidad: 65%. Y en las 6.791 mesas Tipo 4, las que inscriben a 5 nuevos o migrados por cada originario, con 2.949.518 electores; obtuvo hasta 71%.
Otra forma de poner en evidencia el peso de estas movidas dentro del REP se intenta con una muestra que incluye el 2% de mesas, en que se encuentran en mayor porcentaje un tipo específico de elector. "Estamos hablando de 2% de 33 mil mesas", advierte Villalobos: "Son entonces 660 mesas, una muestra porcentual superior a las de las encuestas que miden intención de voto".
En las mesas con mayor cantidad de votantes originales (no migrados), Rosales obtuvo 52% y Chávez 48%. Fueron las únicas donde ganó el opositor. Las que tienen más originales migrados (inscritos en 1998, pero mudados de centro posteriormente) arrojaron 63% a favor de Chávez. Las mesas con más votantes nuevos apoyaron a Chávez con 71% y en las que hubo más nuevos migrados, la diferencia a su favor aumentó a 74%.
En el actual REP, denuncian en Esdata, 50% de los electores son nuevos y migrados. En otras palabras: en cada centro de votación la mitad de los que allí concurren entran bajo esas características. La situación rebasa el promedio en los estados Amazonas, Barinas, Bolívar y Táchira -y es elevada en general en las regiones fronterizas-, alcanzando el pico más alto: 58%. En contraste, Falcón cuenta la menor proporción: 46%, que es igualmente considerable. De los 11 mil centros existentes, 3.843 tienen más de 60% de electores nuevos o migrados.
Como arroz
La evolución resulta interesante. En el caso de los "originales migrados", esos que ya en 1998 estaban en el REP pero que fueron cambiados de centro, en el año 2000 registran 355 mil votantes. Entre 2000 y 2003 se sumaron otros 132 mil. Y los mayores saltos vinieron a continuación: 865 mil más en 2004 y 1.308.000 en 2006.
Los nuevos, esos que se van incorporando al REP, también tuvieron sus apariciones importantes en momentos clave como el referendo revocatorio y las últimas presidenciales. En el año 2000 se inscribieron 648 mil personas. En 2003 son apenas 307 mil. Pero en el periodo entre 2003 y 2004 se sumaron 1.890.000 y entre 2004 y 2006 la cifra aumentó hasta 2.060.000. El año pasado, informó el CNE, se incorporaron 188 mil nuevos. Los que responden a la condición de nuevos migrados totalizaban 12 mil entre 1998 y 2003, pero al momento del revocatorio ya eran 113 mil. Y para las presidenciales otros 523 mil individuos.
"Lo que hace esto digno de ser estudiado es el crecimiento repentino", explica el abogado y ex director del otrora Consejo Supremo Electoral, Alfredo Weil: "Estamos en presencia de incrementos que no se relacionan con la historia electoral del país y el CNE se niega a cumplir con la obligación de suministrar a los partidos políticos las direcciones de los inscritos en el REP, tal como indica el artículo 95 de la Ley Orgánica del Sufragio". Weil explica que el CNE se apoya en una decisión de la Sala Constitucional del TSJ de agosto del año 2000 que negó el acceso a resultados electorales a la Red de Veedores de la UCAB. "Dicen que eso viola la privacidad de la gente".
El documento advierte que el "acceso ilimitado a la información electoral por parte de particulares, conlleva a que se enteren no sólo de quien ejerció o no el derecho al voto, sino de sus direcciones y otros datos que pudieran constituir intromisión en la vida privada de otros". Pero sólo habla de "particulares" y en ningún momento deja por fuera a los partidos políticos. Y, de acuerdo a Esdata, esas organizaciones no tienen la información completa de los nuevos electores.
Ellos han hecho el intento de encontrar a algunos. Escogieron el barrio José Félix Ribas, de Petare: "La densidad de población aquí es brutal, es un barrio consolidado en el que no hay forma que pueda entrar mucha gente a vivir. Sin embargo, entre 2003 y 2006 se duplicó la cantidad de electores", detalla Villalobos: "Junto con miembros de AD intentamos buscar a algunos de los nuevos o migrados inscritos en el REP para votar en esa zona. Hicimos una lista de 200 personas, pero no encontramos a ninguno. Sencillamente no vivían en el lugar. Luego organizamos a un grupo de habitantes del José Félix Ribas, les entregamos las listas de nombres por centro de votación. Al mes nos dijeron que no podían seguir investigando porque los habían amenazado. Y, claro, no encontraron a nadie".
Las migraciones y el abrupto crecimiento del REP forman parte de asignaturas pendientes para la gente de Esdata. Y aunque no albergan mayores esperanzas, insisten en que los partidos reiteren la solicitud de la información completa sobre los electores. Y todavía más: que fijen su atención también en la selección de los miembros de las mesas de votación que, según han denunciado, desde 2006 no cumple con la letra de la Ley Orgánica del Sufragio.
"La otra parte del esquema oficialista es controlar los centros de votación", acusa Guillermo Salas, también de Esdata: "Hay muchos nuevos y migrados, fabrican cédulas que no tienen a nadie detrás y las ubican en centros controlados por ellos". En su sitio web (http://www.esdata.info) identifican situaciones "interesantes": 1.921 centros en los que al menos dos miembros de mesa están en nómina del Ministerio de Educación y no pasan de 4 años de servicio; 4.772 en los que más de 60% (12 de 18) de los miembros de mesa no estaban preseleccionados por el CNE y 5.392 donde más de 60% (12 de 18) de los miembros de mesa son nuevos o migrados. En 2007 repitieron las mismas personas en las mesas y, anticipan en Esdata, este año podrían operar el mismo esquema que se salta los criterios formales.
eluniversal.com
Presidente amenaza con no enviar "ni una gota de petróleo a EEUU" si Exxon congela bienes de Pdvsa - ElUniversal.com
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Economics,
Finance,
Latin America,
Middle East,
Money,
Oil,
United States,
Venezuela
Presidente amenaza con no enviar "ni una gota de petróleo a EEUU" si Exxon congela bienes de Pdvsa
El Universal
Caracas, domingo 10 de febrero, 2008
Petróleo
Barinas.- El presidente Hugo Chávez amenazó hoy con suspender el suministro de petróleo a Estados Unidos si la Exxon Mobile gestiona judicialmente el embargo de los activos de Petróleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa).
"Si ustedes nos llegan a congelar (los fondos) y nos hacen daño, nosotros les vamos a hacer daño, saben cómo, no les vamos a enviar más petroleo a los EEE, anote mister Bush, mister "Danger", si la guerra económica continua contra Venezuela el precio del petróleo va a llegar a 200 dolares y Venezuela se meterá en la guerra económica. Más de un país está dispuesto a acompañarnos en la guerra , no nos van a meter miedo, no nos van a disuadir a nosotros".
El gobernante venezolano se refiere a la acción legal interpuesta por la petrolera estadounidense Exxon Mobile que, por medio de un arbitraje internacional, anunció el jueves que busca la congelación de más de 12 mil millones de dólares en bienes de la estatal petrolera venezolana.
En su Aló, Presidente número 303, el mandatario nuevamente señaló a EEUU como el país que "realmente articula un movimiento internacional en este continente" y a la derecha venezolana como parte del "plan imperial" para volver a convertir al país en una colonia norteamericana.
"Nosotros no podemos permitir que la derecha venezolana vuelva a tomar el poder", advirtió.
"Aquí más nunca nos robarán bandidos de la Exxon Mobile, imperialistas, ladrones de cuello blanco, corruptores de gobierno, derrocadores de gobierno, apoyaron la invasión a Irak y siguen apoyando el genocidio en Irak, bandidos del mundo, mafias mundiales, esa es la Exxon Mobil", dijo el mandatario.
"Yo he leído por allí algún análisis que indica que esto es sólo la punta del iceberg, que vienen las demás empresas, al imperio norteamericano le hablo: Sigan y ustedes verán que no les enviaremos una gota de petróleo al Imperio de los EEUU", advirtió el mandatario.
"Nosotros no podemos ser un gobierno pendejo. No. Nuestra mejor arma es el contraataque, comenzaron los tiros, vamos a los contraataques ya, por eso he dicho a los ministros, vamos, por eso he renovado a mi equipo y lo seguiré renovando, fortaleciendo, es para el ataque", insistió el mandatario.
Indicó tener información confiable de que Bush ordenó que se hagan todos los esfuerzos necesarios para que, antes de dejar la presidencia, Chávez y su revolución bolivariana sean derrotados. "Recuerden que le aposté un dólar a que cuando él se fuese nosotros seguiríamos adelante, y él quiere sacarnos antes de retirarse", alertó el jefe de Estado.
Mariemma Ramos Nava
eluniversal.com
El Universal
Caracas, domingo 10 de febrero, 2008
Petróleo
Barinas.- El presidente Hugo Chávez amenazó hoy con suspender el suministro de petróleo a Estados Unidos si la Exxon Mobile gestiona judicialmente el embargo de los activos de Petróleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa).
"Si ustedes nos llegan a congelar (los fondos) y nos hacen daño, nosotros les vamos a hacer daño, saben cómo, no les vamos a enviar más petroleo a los EEE, anote mister Bush, mister "Danger", si la guerra económica continua contra Venezuela el precio del petróleo va a llegar a 200 dolares y Venezuela se meterá en la guerra económica. Más de un país está dispuesto a acompañarnos en la guerra , no nos van a meter miedo, no nos van a disuadir a nosotros".
El gobernante venezolano se refiere a la acción legal interpuesta por la petrolera estadounidense Exxon Mobile que, por medio de un arbitraje internacional, anunció el jueves que busca la congelación de más de 12 mil millones de dólares en bienes de la estatal petrolera venezolana.
En su Aló, Presidente número 303, el mandatario nuevamente señaló a EEUU como el país que "realmente articula un movimiento internacional en este continente" y a la derecha venezolana como parte del "plan imperial" para volver a convertir al país en una colonia norteamericana.
"Nosotros no podemos permitir que la derecha venezolana vuelva a tomar el poder", advirtió.
"Aquí más nunca nos robarán bandidos de la Exxon Mobile, imperialistas, ladrones de cuello blanco, corruptores de gobierno, derrocadores de gobierno, apoyaron la invasión a Irak y siguen apoyando el genocidio en Irak, bandidos del mundo, mafias mundiales, esa es la Exxon Mobil", dijo el mandatario.
"Yo he leído por allí algún análisis que indica que esto es sólo la punta del iceberg, que vienen las demás empresas, al imperio norteamericano le hablo: Sigan y ustedes verán que no les enviaremos una gota de petróleo al Imperio de los EEUU", advirtió el mandatario.
"Nosotros no podemos ser un gobierno pendejo. No. Nuestra mejor arma es el contraataque, comenzaron los tiros, vamos a los contraataques ya, por eso he dicho a los ministros, vamos, por eso he renovado a mi equipo y lo seguiré renovando, fortaleciendo, es para el ataque", insistió el mandatario.
Indicó tener información confiable de que Bush ordenó que se hagan todos los esfuerzos necesarios para que, antes de dejar la presidencia, Chávez y su revolución bolivariana sean derrotados. "Recuerden que le aposté un dólar a que cuando él se fuese nosotros seguiríamos adelante, y él quiere sacarnos antes de retirarse", alertó el jefe de Estado.
Mariemma Ramos Nava
eluniversal.com
Mr. Danger
Tags:
Chavez
The classic Mr. Danger video from Chavez's Alo Presidente.
As Aznar once said, he is a Comedy for the World, but a Tragedy for Venezuela...
Sub-prime crisis has led to the humbling of America
Sub-prime crisis has led to the humbling of America
Joseph Stiglitz
Published on February 5, 2008
Not surprisingly, the atmosphere at this year's World Economic Forum was grim.
Those who think that globalisation, technology, and the market economy will solve the world's problems seemed subdued. Most chastened of all were the bankers. Against the backdrop of the sub-prime crisis, the disasters at many financial institutions, and the weakening of the stock market, these "masters of the universe" seemed less omniscient than they did a short while ago. And it was not just the bankers who were in the Davos doghouse this year, but also their regulators - the central bankers.
Anyone who goes to international conferences is used to hearing Americans lecture everyone else about transparency. There was still some of that at Davos. I heard the usual suspects - including a former treasury secretary who had been particularly vociferous in such admonishments during the East Asia crisis - bang on about the need for transparency at sovereign wealth funds (though not at American or European hedge funds).
But this time, developing countries could not resist commenting on the hypocrisy of it all. There was even a touch of schadenfreude in the air about the problems the United States is having right now - though it was moderated, of course, by worries about the downturn's impact on their own economies.
Had the US really told others to bring in US banks to teach them about how to run their business? Had the US really boasted about its superior risk management systems, going so far as to develop a new regulatory system (called Basle II)? Basle II is dead - at least until memories of this disaster fade.
Bankers - and the rating agencies - believed in financial alchemy. They thought that financial innovations could somehow turn bad mortgages into good securities, meriting AAA ratings. But one lesson of modern finance theory is that, in well functioning financial markets, repackaging risks should not make much difference. If we know the price of cream and the price of skim milk, we can figure out the price of milk with 1 per cent cream, 2 per cent cream, or 4 per cent cream. There might be some money in repackaging, but not the billions that banks made by slicing and dicing sub-prime mortgages into packages whose value was much greater than their contents.
It seemed too good to be true - and it was. Worse, banks failed to understand the first principle of risk management: diversification only works when risks are not correlated, and macro-shocks affect the probability of default for all mortgages.
I argued at Davos that central bankers also got it wrong by misjudging the threat of a downturn and failing to provide sufficient regulation. They waited too long to take action. Because it normally takes a year or more for the full effects of monetary policy to be felt, central banks need to act pre-emptively, not reactively.
Worse, the US Federal Reserve and its previous chairman, Alan Greenspan, may have helped create the problem, encouraging households to take on risky variable-rate mortgages by reassuring those who worried about a housing bubble that there was at most a little "froth" in the market. Normally, a Davos audience would rally to the support of the central bankers. This time, a vote at the end of the session supported my view by a margin of three to one. Even the plea of one of central banker that "no one could have predicted the problems" moved few in the audience - perhaps because several people sitting there had, like me, explicitly warned about the impending problem in previous years. The only thing we got wrong was how bad banks' lending practices were, how non-transparent banks really were, and how inadequate their risk management systems were.
It was interesting to see the different cultural attitudes to the crisis on display. In Japan, the CEO of a major bank would have apologised to his employees and his country, and would have refused his pension and bonus so that those who suffered as a result of corporate failures could share the money. He would have resigned. In the US the only questions are whether a board will force a CEO to leave and, if so, how big his severance package will be. When I asked one CEO whether there was any discussion of returning their bonuses, the response was not just no, but an aggressive defence of the bonus system.
This is the third US crisis in the past 20 years, after the Savings & Loan crisis of 1989 and the Enron/WorldCom crisis in 2002. Deregulation has not worked. Unfettered markets may produce big bonuses for CEO's, but they do not lead, as if by an invisible hand, to societal well-being. Until we achieve a better balance between markets and government, the world will continue to pay a high price.
Joseph E Stiglitz won the Nobel Prize in 2001 for his work on the economics of information.
Copyright: Project Syndicate.
The Nation
Bangkok's Independent Newspaper
Joseph Stiglitz
Published on February 5, 2008
Not surprisingly, the atmosphere at this year's World Economic Forum was grim.
Those who think that globalisation, technology, and the market economy will solve the world's problems seemed subdued. Most chastened of all were the bankers. Against the backdrop of the sub-prime crisis, the disasters at many financial institutions, and the weakening of the stock market, these "masters of the universe" seemed less omniscient than they did a short while ago. And it was not just the bankers who were in the Davos doghouse this year, but also their regulators - the central bankers.
Anyone who goes to international conferences is used to hearing Americans lecture everyone else about transparency. There was still some of that at Davos. I heard the usual suspects - including a former treasury secretary who had been particularly vociferous in such admonishments during the East Asia crisis - bang on about the need for transparency at sovereign wealth funds (though not at American or European hedge funds).
But this time, developing countries could not resist commenting on the hypocrisy of it all. There was even a touch of schadenfreude in the air about the problems the United States is having right now - though it was moderated, of course, by worries about the downturn's impact on their own economies.
Had the US really told others to bring in US banks to teach them about how to run their business? Had the US really boasted about its superior risk management systems, going so far as to develop a new regulatory system (called Basle II)? Basle II is dead - at least until memories of this disaster fade.
Bankers - and the rating agencies - believed in financial alchemy. They thought that financial innovations could somehow turn bad mortgages into good securities, meriting AAA ratings. But one lesson of modern finance theory is that, in well functioning financial markets, repackaging risks should not make much difference. If we know the price of cream and the price of skim milk, we can figure out the price of milk with 1 per cent cream, 2 per cent cream, or 4 per cent cream. There might be some money in repackaging, but not the billions that banks made by slicing and dicing sub-prime mortgages into packages whose value was much greater than their contents.
It seemed too good to be true - and it was. Worse, banks failed to understand the first principle of risk management: diversification only works when risks are not correlated, and macro-shocks affect the probability of default for all mortgages.
I argued at Davos that central bankers also got it wrong by misjudging the threat of a downturn and failing to provide sufficient regulation. They waited too long to take action. Because it normally takes a year or more for the full effects of monetary policy to be felt, central banks need to act pre-emptively, not reactively.
Worse, the US Federal Reserve and its previous chairman, Alan Greenspan, may have helped create the problem, encouraging households to take on risky variable-rate mortgages by reassuring those who worried about a housing bubble that there was at most a little "froth" in the market. Normally, a Davos audience would rally to the support of the central bankers. This time, a vote at the end of the session supported my view by a margin of three to one. Even the plea of one of central banker that "no one could have predicted the problems" moved few in the audience - perhaps because several people sitting there had, like me, explicitly warned about the impending problem in previous years. The only thing we got wrong was how bad banks' lending practices were, how non-transparent banks really were, and how inadequate their risk management systems were.
It was interesting to see the different cultural attitudes to the crisis on display. In Japan, the CEO of a major bank would have apologised to his employees and his country, and would have refused his pension and bonus so that those who suffered as a result of corporate failures could share the money. He would have resigned. In the US the only questions are whether a board will force a CEO to leave and, if so, how big his severance package will be. When I asked one CEO whether there was any discussion of returning their bonuses, the response was not just no, but an aggressive defence of the bonus system.
This is the third US crisis in the past 20 years, after the Savings & Loan crisis of 1989 and the Enron/WorldCom crisis in 2002. Deregulation has not worked. Unfettered markets may produce big bonuses for CEO's, but they do not lead, as if by an invisible hand, to societal well-being. Until we achieve a better balance between markets and government, the world will continue to pay a high price.
Joseph E Stiglitz won the Nobel Prize in 2001 for his work on the economics of information.
Copyright: Project Syndicate.
The Nation
Bangkok's Independent Newspaper
Saturday, February 9, 2008
World bourses lost 5.2 trillion dlrs in January
And what is still left to come...
World bourses lost 5.2 trillion dlrs in January: credit rater
World stockmarkets lost 5.2 trillion dollars (3.6 trillion euros) in January thanks to the fallout from the US subprime crisis and fears of a global economic slowdown, Standard & Poor's said Saturday.
"If investors thought the market could only go up, January's wake-up call pulled them back into reality," the independent credit ratings' provider said.
Standard & Poor's said the world's equity markets lost a combined 5.2 trillion dollars as emerging markets fell 12.44 percent and developed markets lost 7.83 percent to register one of the worst starts to a new year.
"There were few safe havens in January as 50 of the 52 global equity markets ended the month in negative territory, with 25 of them posting double-digit losses," said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&Ps.
All 26 developed equity markets posted negative returns in January, with 16 losing at least 10 percent of their value.
The January declines negated all previous market gains, leaving all of the developed markets in the red for the trailing three month period.
In Paris, the stock exchange lost 12.27 percent over the course of January, 15.27 percent over the past three months, more than wiping out its gains over the last 12 months -- down 0.74 percent).
The situation was even worse in London -- down 8.85 percent in January, down 16.54 percent for the past three months and down 2.22 percent over 12 months -- and in the US, which was down 6.07 percent in January, down 10.78 percent over three months and down 2.42 percent over 12 months.
The story was similar in Japan, where the market lost 4.47 percent in January, 10.31 percent over three months and down 10.44 percent over the past 12 months.
In Germany, in contrast, although the stock exchange lost 13.72 percent in January and 13.84 percent over three months, it was up 13.43 percent over the year.
Equity markets in emerging countries also suffered heavy losses in January, apart from Morocco which gained 10.17 percent and Jordan, which was up by 3.11 percent. Turkey was the most affected with
January losses reaching 22.70 percent, followed by China on 21.40 percent, Russia on 16.12 percent and India at 16 percent.
But only Argentina and Taiwan slipped into negative territory for the 12-month period.
Copyright © 2008 Agence France Presse. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AFP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of Agence France Presse.
Copyright © 2008 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Print Story: World bourses lost 5.2 trillion dlrs in January: credit rater on Yahoo! News
World bourses lost 5.2 trillion dlrs in January: credit rater
World stockmarkets lost 5.2 trillion dollars (3.6 trillion euros) in January thanks to the fallout from the US subprime crisis and fears of a global economic slowdown, Standard & Poor's said Saturday.
"If investors thought the market could only go up, January's wake-up call pulled them back into reality," the independent credit ratings' provider said.
Standard & Poor's said the world's equity markets lost a combined 5.2 trillion dollars as emerging markets fell 12.44 percent and developed markets lost 7.83 percent to register one of the worst starts to a new year.
"There were few safe havens in January as 50 of the 52 global equity markets ended the month in negative territory, with 25 of them posting double-digit losses," said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&Ps.
All 26 developed equity markets posted negative returns in January, with 16 losing at least 10 percent of their value.
The January declines negated all previous market gains, leaving all of the developed markets in the red for the trailing three month period.
In Paris, the stock exchange lost 12.27 percent over the course of January, 15.27 percent over the past three months, more than wiping out its gains over the last 12 months -- down 0.74 percent).
The situation was even worse in London -- down 8.85 percent in January, down 16.54 percent for the past three months and down 2.22 percent over 12 months -- and in the US, which was down 6.07 percent in January, down 10.78 percent over three months and down 2.42 percent over 12 months.
The story was similar in Japan, where the market lost 4.47 percent in January, 10.31 percent over three months and down 10.44 percent over the past 12 months.
In Germany, in contrast, although the stock exchange lost 13.72 percent in January and 13.84 percent over three months, it was up 13.43 percent over the year.
Equity markets in emerging countries also suffered heavy losses in January, apart from Morocco which gained 10.17 percent and Jordan, which was up by 3.11 percent. Turkey was the most affected with
January losses reaching 22.70 percent, followed by China on 21.40 percent, Russia on 16.12 percent and India at 16 percent.
But only Argentina and Taiwan slipped into negative territory for the 12-month period.
Copyright © 2008 Agence France Presse. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AFP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of Agence France Presse.
Copyright © 2008 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Print Story: World bourses lost 5.2 trillion dlrs in January: credit rater on Yahoo! News
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Emailing: Mozambique Providing the Information
Resource Investor - News that trades
<http://www.resourceinvestor.com/siteimages/RIlogo 60 high.jpg>
<http://www.resourceinvestor.com/siteimages/RIlogo 60 high.jpg>
Mozambique: Providing the Information
By Jim Jones
07 Feb 2008 at 09:00 AM
CAPE TOWN (ResourceInvestor.com <http://www.resourceinvestor.com> ) -- When
Mozambique appears in the news these days, it almost seems that all there is
to report is yet another disaster. The latest is flooding as rain in Zambia
and Angola swells the Zimbabwe River, up-river dam spillways are opened, and
large areas are inundated by flood waters.
When problems arrive, they seem to come in threes.
The good news is different. Mozambique is doing everything it can to attract
mining investment, and it is succeeding. As Deputy Director of Geology
Adriano Servano told delegates at the Mining
<http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=39630> Indaba in Cape
Town, rapidly progressing geophysical and geochemical surveys have added
significantly to the publicly available information on the country.
Without being flippant, Mozambique is an "uninteresting" country in some
African terms. It is at peace with itself, it is quietly attracting
investment, the economy is growing steadily at more than 7% a year (of a
small base, certainly, but 7%-plus nevertheless) and it is building minerals
infrastructure. Sadly for the popular press, there are no wars, famines or
uncontrollable natural disasters. This is an ordinary country, quietly going
about the business of developing its economy on a number of fronts.
Mining and fiscal legislation that encourages investment is in place and
working as far as early investors are concerned. On the minerals front, the
nation's geological survey has been completing geophysical mapping of the
entire country - information that is available digitally to would-be
investors. The same goes for geochemical surveys, though this is somewhat
less progressed than geophysical mapping. Nevertheless, geochemical data
sets and industrial minerals reports are readily available. So, too, is the
cadastral survey which provides quick access to information on property
title ownership.
Developing new mines takes time. Still, Kenmare Resources [LSE:KMR
<http://finance.google.com/finance?q=LON%3AKMR> ] has brought its heavy
minerals sands operation on stream in the north of the country in short
order. And, finance director Tony McCluskey told delegates, Kenmare has
nothing but praise for the way in which Mozambican officials have
facilitated the company's project development.
The Kenmare project came on stream in April 2007 and is already producing an
annual 80,000 tonnes of ilmenite along with the full suite of titanium
minerals. Next in line is a major export coal mining development by Xstrata
[LSE:XTA <http://finance.google.com/finance?q=LON%3AXTA> ] near the town of
Tete, which is near the Cahora Bassa hydro dam on the Zambesi and based on a
coal resource that has been mined spasmodically since colonial times.
Mozambique's principal resource endowment is the country's gas, which is
piped to South Africa, largely for conversion into liquid automotive fuels.
But these gas, heavy minerals and coal projects would seem to be just the
start of a programme of further developments. Expect more big things to
happen in this "uninteresting" African nation.
(c) Copyright 2008, Resource Investor.
Printed via the AbsolPublisher content management system.
_____
Craving the High That Risky Trading Can Bring
Tags:
Capitalism,
Commodities,
Current Affairs,
Economics,
ForEx,
France,
Gold,
Hedge Funds,
Living,
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February 7, 2008
Craving the High That Risky Trading Can Bring
By JENNY ANDERSON
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/a/jenny_anderson
/index.html?inline=nyt-per>
It is easy to dismiss Jérôme Kerviel, the rogue trader at Société Générale
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/s/societe
_generale/index.html?inline=nyt-org> , as a fluke.
So here is a sobering thought for Wall Street: There may be a bit of Mr.
Kerviel in all of us.
A small group of scientists, including some psychologists, say they are
starting to discover what many Wall Street professionals have long suspected
- that people are hard-wired for money. The human brain, these researchers
say, responds to high-stakes trading just as it does to the lure of sex. And
the riskier the trades get, the more the brain craves them.
French prosecutors have likened Mr. Kerviel's trades to a drug habit. That
is no surprise to Brian Knutson, a professor of psychology and neuroscience
at Stanford University
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/s/stanfor
d_university/index.html?inline=nyt-org> and a pioneer in neurofinance, an
emerging field that combines psychology, neuroscience and economics, to
examine how the brain makes decisions.
Mr. Knutson has sent volunteers through high-power imaging machines to map
their brains as they trade. He concludes that sometimes, people get high on
making money.
"The more you think you can gain from the risk, the more you take the risk
and the more activation in the circuitry," Mr. Knutson said.
Neuroeconomics has not won many converts on Wall Street. Researchers like
Mr. Knutson have yet to show how their work can be applied effectively in
the markets. And some academics question whether the field is of any use in
economics.
"Economics is about equilibrium, and supply and demand, and forces that come
to some stabilized system," says Stephen A. Ross, the Franco Modigliani
Professor of Finance and Economics at the Massachusetts
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/m/massach
usetts_institute_of_technology/index.html?inline=nyt-org> Institute of
Technology. "It's not about atoms or how little people behave."
Even so, the field seems to be gaining some traction. Last year Jason Zweig,
who edited the 2003 edition of "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin
Graham, wrote a 352-page book entitled "Your Money and Your Brain: How the
New Science of Neuroeconomics Can Help Make Your Rich."
One of his findings was that brain images of drug addicts who are about to
take another hit are indistinguishable from those of traders who are making
money and about to place another trade. "That tells us pretty confidently
that if you make money and make money again," Mr. Zweig said, "it is very
similar to a chemical addiction and it becomes very hard to let go."
Mr. Kerviel, 31, told prosecutors that he was thrilled when his
surreptitious trades in European stock index futures began to pay off. By
late December, he had made a profit of about $2 billion. "That produced a
desire to continue," Mr. Kerviel said. "There was a snowball effect."
But when the markets turned against him, Mr. Kerviel made an all-too-common
mistake: He refused to cut his losses, which would balloon to more than $7
billion as the bank frantically unwound his positions on Jan. 21-22.
Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/nobel_prizes/index.html?i
nline=nyt-classifier> -winning psychologist, showed that individuals do not
always act rationally when faced with uncertainty in decision making. When
faced with losses, individuals may seek to take more risk rather than less,
contrary to what traditional economic thought might suggest.
"When you are threatened with extinction, you act like nothing matters,"
said Andrew Lo, a professor at M.I.T. who has studied the role of emotions
in trading. Mr. Kerviel, he said, is a case study in loss aversion.
Mr. Lo and Dmitry V. Repin of Boston University
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/b/boston_
university/index.html?inline=nyt-org> have studied traders to determine how
stress and emotions affect investment returns. They monitored traders' vital
signs like heart rate, body temperature and respiration as their subjects
darted in and out of trades.
The findings, while preliminary, suggest - perhaps unsurprisingly - that
traders who let their emotions get the best of them tend to fare poorly in
the markets. But traders who rely on logic alone don't do that well either.
The most successful ones use their emotions to their advantage without
letting the feelings overwhelm them.
"The best traders are the ones who have controlled emotional responses," Mr.
Lo said. "Professional athletes have the same reaction - they use emotion to
psych them up, but they don't let those emotions take them over."
Or, as Warren E. Buffett
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/warren_e_buffe
tt/index.html?inline=nyt-per> once put it, "Once you have ordinary
intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get
other people into trouble in investing."
Of course most traders do not breach ethical boundaries like Mr. Kerviel,
who doctored e-mail messages to hide his unauthorized trades. But unbridled
ambition and the hit from the money high are a dangerous combination.
People like to think that logic prevails in the financial markets, that
traders and investors always act rationally. "Clearly, institutional
investors want to believe it's all scientific," said Mark W. Yusko,
president of Morgan Creek Capital Management.
But Wall Street can get carried away. The Internet boom and bust were
followed by an even bigger boom and bust in mortgage lending. Wall Street is
now saddled with more than $100 billion in losses stemming from mortgage
investments, and the economy may be sliding into recession.
Alpesh Patel, principal at the Praefinium Group, an asset management
company, said that when traders get too emotional, they start making bigger,
more frequent trades.
"You know you are damaging yourself, and there's no gain in a financial
sense, but the highs from the winning lead you to take bigger risks," said
Mr. Patel, who has written 11 books on trading psychology and risk
management.
Legendary Wall Street traders like Steven A. Cohen and Julian H. Robertson
Jr.
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/r/julian_h_rober
tson_jr/index.html?inline=nyt-per> are students of human emotion. Mr.
Cohen, who runs a $15 billion hedge fund called SAC Capital Advisors, keeps
Ari Kiev, a psychiatrist, on hand to work with his legions of traders,
people from SAC say. (Dr. Kiev declined to say whether he worked for Mr.
Cohen's firm.)
Mr. Robertson, the founder of Tiger Management, which at its peak in 1998
managed $22 billion, turned to a psychoanalyst, Dr. Aaron Stern, to test and
evaluate Tiger's traders.
Dr. Kiev, author of the forthcoming "Mastering Trading Stress: Strategies
for Maximizing Performance," said many traders, professionals and everyday
investors alike, fail to manage their risks.
"It is more common for people to hold onto losers and see their investment
go to zero, or shorts go to the sky, than it is for them to practice good
risk management and get out," Dr. Kiev said.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
Saturday, February 2, 2008
Pdvsa ofrece en venta al contado 16 millones de barriles de fuel oil
Tags:
Capitalism,
Commodities,
Finance,
Latin America,
Money,
Oil,
United States,
Venezuela
Pdvsa ofrece en venta al contado 16 millones de barriles de
Desde hace más de tres meses la estatal no realiza ventas de fuel en el mercado abierto, por lo que tiene copada su capacidad de almacenamiento (Archivo) |
Espera recibir como mínimo 1.000 millones de dólares por la transacción
MARIANNA PÁRRAGA
EL UNIVERSAL
Petróleos de Venezuela formalizó esta semana una oferta para la venta conjunta de ocho cargamentos VLCC (very large crude carrier) de fuel oil con 3% de azufre, que suman alrededor de 16 millones de barriles.
La transacción prevé hacerse a corto plazo, pues la fecha de cierre de la oferta es el 6 de febrero, con la particularidad de que los cargamentos, con un precio de arranque de 1.000 millones de dólares, deben ser cancelados sin demora el 7 de febrero. Se trata, por tanto, de una venta al contado, bastante inusual entre los operadores de este tipo de productos.
Según datos aportados por operadores, Pdvsa acumula más de tres meses sin vender fuel oil en el mercado abierto (spot), por lo que desde esa fecha se ha limitado a despachar cuatro cargamentos VLCC a China, que adquiere este combustible como parte de una serie de acuerdos bilaterales que implican la venta por contrato de volúmenes cercanos a los 150 mil barriles por día.
En ese lapso la estatal ha acumulado volúmenes importantes de fuel en sus tanques e incluso ha tenido que almacenar en Borco (Bahamas) y Bopec (Bonaire).
De manera extraoficial se pudo conocer que la razón por la cual se detuvieron las exportaciones de fuel en el mercado abierto es la aplicación de precios fórmula por parte del Ministerio de Energía y Petróleo.
En vista de que el precio de mercado del fuel en la cuenca atlántica ha estado en los últimos meses por debajo del precio fórmula fijado por el Menpet -noviembre, diciembre y enero son meses en que las mayores colocaciones en el hemisferio norte corresponden a diesel y combustible para calefacción-, Pdvsa ha estado impedida de salir de los cargamentos por instrucciones del Menpet.
Sin embargo, los 1.000 millones de dólares que como mínimo espera recibir la estatal petrolera por los ocho cargamentos se sitúan por debajo del precio de mercado que estos tienen si se comercializan por separado: alrededor de 140 millones de dólares por VLCC para un total de $1.120 millones.
Mucho fuel y poca caja
En 2005, el último año del cual se poseen estadísticas detalladas, se produjeron en las refinerías venezolanas 221 mil barriles diarios de residuales de alto azufre, entre los cuales se cuenta el fuel oil. Esta cifra debe haberse incrementado al menos ligeramente en los últimos dos años, tomando en cuenta que la dieta de las refinerías venezolanas se ha hecho más pesada con la incorporación de crudo de mayor gravidez.
A la alta producción de residuales que tienen las refinerías nacionales se suma la imperiosa necesidad de flujo de caja que presenta Pdvsa y que podría estar motivando el cobro de los cargamentos de contado.
El mes pasado la dirección de Comercio y Suministro de la estatal anunció el recorte de los tiempos de cobro de sus ventas en el exterior de 30 a 8 días. La "constante devaluación del dólar estadounidense y las altas exigencias en la calidad de crudos y productos" fueron mencionadas como los motivos de esta medida, que debería derivar en el mantenimiento de un flujo de caja positivo en las cuentas de la empresa.
Aunque Pdvsa anunció después del paro la minimización del uso de traders para sus ventas, ésta es nuevamente una práctica habitual en la estatal.
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