investors are betting on continued gains as demand grows globally and
the dollar weakens. That long-term outlook remains intact but "the
commodity complex is acting poorly here," says John Roque, technical
analyst at WJB Capital Group, who makes the following observations in
the accompanying clip:
* -- After rallying above $80 in late 2009 and again in early 2010,
oil appeared poised to make a run at $90, if not triple digits. It's
failure to "continue that breakout" and subsequent sharp pullback is a
warning sign, Roque says. "It wouldn't surprise us to see oil back at
$60," if support at $70 breaks.
* -- A longtime bull on gold, Roque turned short-term cautious in
early December, shortly after the metal peaked at $1227 per ounce. The
technician says gold will likely stabilize around $1000 per ounce but
has "no base" to sustain a rally from current levels.
* -- Weakness prior to Tuesday's rally suggests copper could test $3
per pound, Roque says. "And if copper does have an economics
degree...its weakness is also a concern" for the broader economy.
The recent action in copper, oil and base metals such as zinc and lead
-- plus strength in Treasury prices -- "would suggest economies are
likely to weaken here, not strengthen," Roque says.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/422124/"Commodity-
Complex":-Oil,-Gold,-Copper-Point-to-Weaker-Economy,-Roque-Says?
tickers=GLD,FCX,OIH,USO,XLE,DBC,NEM