The Silver Lining

The Silver Lining

By: Eric Sprott & David Franklin

No matter how complex our financial system becomes, the economic axiom of supply and demand will still apply. If the demand for an asset outstrips supply, the price of that asset will appreciate. The challenge in finding supply and demand imbalances in today’s market often lies in judging the quality of market data available – it frequently isn’t even close to being accurate. If the numbers don’t show the imbalances, it’s tough for investors to determine if the market price accurately reflects the market dynamics. Nowhere is this more prevalent than in the market for silver.

While gold dominates the headlines, the silver market actually enjoys a superior fundamental supply/ demand story than that for gold, although you’d never know it based on the silver demand statistics from the major reporting services. As students of the precious metals markets we monitor the numerous metals reporting services very closely. According to those services, the silver market has enjoyed a stable supply/demand balance for almost ten years now. If that’s the case, why has the price of silver appreciated from $5 to $19/oz over that same time period? Is the reporting services’ data on the silver market truly reflective of silver’s underlying fundamentals?

Although there are several reporting services for silver market information, GFMS Ltd. and The Silver Institute are the most often quoted sources for silver market data. While they provide statistics for both silver supply and demand, it is their neglect of the “investment” demand category that we find problematic. GFMS and The Silver Institute use a category called “implied net investment” to capture the demand for physical silver from institutional and retail investors. The definition for “net investment” as defined by GFMS is “the residual from combining all other GFMS data on silver supply/demand... As such, it captures the net physical impact of all transactions not covered by the other supply/ demand variables.”1 In other words, it is not an observed figure. GFMS’s “implied net investment” number doesn’t include any observable demand for silver by ETF’s and other reporting entities such as hedge funds - it is merely a plug used to balance the supply data for GFMS’s and the Silver Institute’s reporting purposes.2 As we delved deeper into the silver market, this realization prompted us to calculate our own investment demand statistic.

We present our findings in Table A. While GFMS and The Silver Institute use an implied number, we calculated a real investment demand number using a handful of ETF’s and two other large private investors, one of which is our own firm. Our demand metric is by no means complete or exhaustive - we only used seven sources of reported investment demand, and yet from our informal and incomplete survey we found that GFMS and The Silver Institute had underreported silver investment demand by at least 225 million ounces! This shortfall doesn’t consider any other investors that may have bought silver over the past year, so real demand for silver could be multiple times higher.

June 2010

Table A

Given its seemingly evident market imbalances, you might wonder why silver hasn’t performed better over the last year. The answer, we believe, lies in the way silver is priced. The silver spot price is dictated by paper contracts that trade on the COMEX exchange in New York. Paper contracts can be purchased “long” or sold “short”. If more participants sell “short” than purchase “long”, the paper market price for silver will decline. Often these contracts have little to no relationship with actual physical silver, and yet they are the most influential contract in determining silver’s physical spot price. Go figure.

In studying the silver market we owe a great debt to the work of silver analyst, Ted Butler. Mr. Butler has been writing about the silver market for fifteen years and has done much to inform investors about the reality of silver’s physical fundamentals. Butler provides some insight into the “short” positions that exist in silver today, highlighting the fact that the eight largest silver traders currently hold a net short position of over 66,000 contracts, representing more than 330 million ounces of silver.11 This means that the eight largest COMEX traders are net short the equivalent of 48.5% of the world’s total annual silver mine production of 680.9 million ounces. None of these traders are in the silver business by the way – they’re all financial institutions. In addition, the COMEX silver short position held by the eight largest traders on May 3, 2010, represented 33% of total world silver bullion inventory,

Holder

Silver Holdings in Oz as of December 31, 2009

iShares Silver Trust 3

305,205,951

Central Fund of Canada 4

67,322,479

Zürcher Kantonalbank (ZKB) Silver ETF 5

59,370,000

Sprott Asset Management 6

41,838,539

ETFS - Silver UK 7

23,370,555

GoldMoney 8

20,000,000

Claymore Silver Bullion Trust 9

2,476,400

TOTAL Holdings

519,583,924

Aggregate Implied Investment Demand (2000 to 2009)10

293,800,000

Missing Investment Demand

225,783,924

Real investment Demand for Silver

Source: Sprott Asset Management

June 2010

estimated by Butler to be approximately one billion ounces. There is no real comparison with gold, as the 24.5 million ounce concentrated net short position held by the eight largest traders represents a mere 1.2% of the 2 billion+ ounces of world gold bullion inventory as reported by the World Gold Council.12 So in comparison to total world bullion inventories, the concentrated short position in silver is 27 times larger than that for gold. In every comparison possible, the short position in COMEX silver contracts is off the charts, and if you think the short positions sound potentially disruptive, you’re not alone. In September 2008 the CFTC confirmed that its Division of Enforcement has been investigating complaints of misconduct in the silver market. This investigation is ongoing and we look forward to its resolution.13

Because we believe the demand for precious metals will continue to increase in this environment, we’re always interested to know the total supply available in today’s physical bullion market. According to the best estimates from the USGS and current mining statistics, approximately 46 billion ounces of silver have been mined since the dawn of civilization.14 In comparison, approximately 5 billion ounces of gold have been mined throughout history.15 Reading this, a casual observer might conclude that gold is currently justified in being worth more than silver based on its relative scarcity. But the current price discrepancy ($1,250/oz gold vs $19/oz silver) is misleading.

What Resource Curse? - By Charles Kenny | Foreign Policy

What Resource Curse?

Is it really true that underground riches lead to above-ground woes? No, not really.

BY CHARLES KENNY | DECEMBER 6, 2010

Bad news: Mozambique has just discovered between 6 trillion and 8 trillion cubic feet of gas sitting off its shoreline -- quite enough for commercial production. This on top of a recent coal-mining boom is destined to make the country a major natural resource exporter. Joining the East African country in recent misfortune is Papua New Guinea, scheduled to start exporting $30 billion worth of natural gas, and Afghanistan -- particularly blighted by the discovery of iron, copper, cobalt, gold, and lithium deposits with a combined value over $1 trillion. Oh, lackaday. Whatever chance they had of sustaining a stable, economically robust democracy is surely down the pit latrine now.

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How so? Enter the resource curse -- the idea that the more stuff dug out from on or under a country, the slower it will grow and the higher the risk it will descend into civil war. Versions of the curse have been around for some time. Back in the 1970s, economists worried about "Dutch disease." Countries that exported a lot of gas or oil would see their exchange rates go up as a result. This, in turn, could make their manufacturing exports uncompetitive. But the idea really picked up steam in the mid-1990s, when Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner, then both at Harvard University, found that countries that exported more agricultural products, minerals, and fuels saw slower economic growth.
Sachs and Warner highlighted Dutch disease and its knock-on effects as the likely cause. But other researchers looking at the same data argued that the link might be through empowering kleptocratic leaders with resource rents or the destabilizing political impact of easy money. In a matter of a few years, resource exports were charged with a host of ill effects -- not least, low education spending, unstable government, civil war, corruption, and poor governance.
The curse is the type of counterintuitive idea that makes for a great newspaper op-ed. Nonetheless, the curse is also the kind of counterintuitive idea where intuition may have been right to begin with. In 1997, the World Bank produced some measures of total natural resource wealth -- including agricultural land, mineral and oil resources, and protected areas. The richest countries in terms of resources per citizen were Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Norway. Their average income per head in 2008 was $24,430. Jordan and Malawi were at the bottom of the list. Jordan has a per capita income of $5,702; Malawi's is $744. Looking at mineral wealth alone, Venezuela and Norway were at the top, while Belgium, Benin, Ghana (before the recent oil discoveries), and Nepal were at the bottom. While Ghana's oil discovery suggests one problem with the rankings -- rich countries have been better explored for mineral deposits -- nonetheless, the list hardly suggests that resource scarcity is the secret to rapid growth.
Looking at recent growth across countries, Swiss economist Christa Brunnschweiler concludes that economies with greater resource wealth actually grew faster between 1970 and 2000 than resource-poor countries. She also finds no evidence that greater resource wealth is associated with weaker institutions, a finding repeated by Daron Acemoglu at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Together with her colleague Erwin Bulte, Brunnschweiler also looked at the link between natural resources and civil disorder. They found that countries with more natural resource wealth were less likely to descend into civil war in the first place. The same result held whether they were using a broad measure of resource wealth or focused only on minerals or oil. Elsewhere, Stephen Haber and Victor Menaldo of Stanford University and the University of Washington, respectively, studied the relationship between oil revenues and democracy over time across countries. They found that democracies were actually made more resilient by growing oil revenues -- while they couldn't find an impact one way or another when it came to autocracies. Sure, there are cases where oil revenues and autocracy increased together. It is just that there are at least as many cases where that didn't happen -- and more cases where democracy strengthened as revenues went up.
How to reconcile these results with all the papers and articles that find a curse? Earlier studies looked at the importance of natural resource exports at a particular moment in time. There, the relationship holds -- high dependence on resource exports is associated with lower growth and risk of civil war. But that's a strange way to measure "the curse of resources." According to the usual story, the curse involves the misfortune of sitting atop an oil field or diamond-bearing rocks. It's a story of abundance -- as examined by Bulte and Brunnschweiler -- not dependence.
And dependence has got to do with a lot of other things besides mineral reserves. It is true that many countries that rely heavily on natural resource exports are poor and unstable. That's because poor and unstable countries are rarely globally competitive in banking or computer design (it's hard to develop a flourishing microchip industry as the bullets fly). Natural resources are pretty much the only thing such countries have a comparative advantage in trading. Again, countries don't get rich if all they do is produce crops and dig stuff out of the ground. Getting rich takes a vibrant services sector and at least some manufacturing. So countries where digging stuff out of the ground is an especially large part of what goes on in the economy are in trouble. But they are in trouble because they've failed so miserably to create an environment where services and manufacturing can flourish -- not because they happen to have a diamond deposit.
Do kleptocratic regimes exploit natural resources to pad their bank accounts, buy off opponents, and purchase weapons to cow holdouts? Of course they do. Exploiting, padding, bribing, and bullying are what kleptocrats do best. But they are equal-opportunity exploiters. If natural resource rents aren't available, they'll find something else -- and maybe do something worse to get it. For every Gen. Sani Abacha skimming billions off Nigeria's oil wealth, there is a Field Marshal Idi Amin massacring Ugandans by the thousands without the aid or incentive of significant mineral resources.
Happily for those countries stuck atop piles of diamonds or lakes of oil, then, it turns out the resource curse must have been enchanted by a pretty feeble witch. Once you look at the evidence more carefully, the usual argument is turned on its head. Countries that rely on natural resources for a large part of their output are indeed cursed -- by poor quality government and an institutional environment that stifles the growth of manufacturing and services. That's the good news for Afghanistan, Mozambique, and Papua New Guinea: They won't necessarily get any poorer or more unstable thanks to their massive mineral reserves. But bad news follows, too: Given the comparatively weak state of their current institutions, the countries are unlikely to use the money generated to become the next Norway, either.
That's why the most heralded talisman against the resource curse -- improving institutions through greater transparency and oversight -- makes sense regardless. In fact, because so much of the revenues from extractive industries flow through governments, improved oversight might be a particular help after a mineral find. The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, for example, publishes audited statements regarding payments from industry to government in royalties and taxes. Another approach, championed by Todd Moss at the Center for Global Development, is to pass on oil revenues directly to citizens -- a model adopted in Alaska. These are good ideas, and it is great news that Mozambique and Afghanistan have signed up to the Transparency Initiative.
But at heart, they are good ideas because all governments should be more transparent and increase the flow of resources to communities, no matter what's under their land. Blaming oil wealth for poverty, though, is like blaming treasure for the existence of pirates.

GIANLUIGI GUERCIA/AFP/Getty Images

Charles Kenny is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development and a Schwartz fellow at the New America Foundation.

What Resource Curse? - By Charles Kenny | Foreign Policy

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Welcome to the Mania!

Welcome to the Mania!

Submitted by Jeff Clark of Casey Research

With gold punching the $1,300 mark, thoughts of what a gold mania will be like crossed my mind. If we're right about the future of precious metals, a gold rush of historic proportions lies ahead of us. Have you thought about how a mania might affect you? Not like this, you haven't…

You log on to your brokerage account for the third time that day and see your precious metal portfolio has doubled from last week. Gold and silver stocks have been screaming upward for weeks. Everyone around you is panicking from runaway inflation and desperate to get their hands on any form of gold or silver. It's exhilarating and frightening in the same breath. Welcome to the mania.

Daily gains of 20% in gold and silver producers become common, even expected. Valuations have been thrown out the window – this is no time for models and charts and analysis. It's not greed; it's survival. Get what you can, while you can. Investors clamor to buy any stock with the word "gold" in its title. Fear of being left behind is palpable.

The shares of junior exploration companies have gone ballistic. They double and triple in days, then double and triple again. Many have already risen ten-fold. You have several up 10,000%. No end is in sight. Your portfolio swells bigger every day. Your life is changing right in front of you at warp speed.

Every business program touts the latest hot gold or silver stock. It's all they can talk about. Headlines blare anything about precious metals, no matter how trivial. Weekly news magazines and talk-radio hosts dispense free stock picks. CNBC and Bloomberg battle to be first with the latest news. Each tick in the price of gold and silver flashes on screen, and interruptions offering the latest prediction seem to happen every fifteen minutes. Breathy reporters yell above the noise on the trade floor about insane volume, and computers that can't keep up. Entire programs are devoted to predicting the next winner. You watch to see if some of your stocks are named. You can't help it.

The only thing growing faster than your portfolio is the number of new "gold experts." It's a bull market in bull.

You can feel the crazed mass psychology all around you. Your co-workers know you bought gold some time ago and pepper you with questions seemingly every hour, interrupting your work. They ask if you heard about the latest pick from Fox Business. They want to know where you buy gold, who has the best price, and, by the way, how do I know if my gold is real? They all look at you differently now. Women smile at you in the hallway. You worry someone may follow you home.

Your relatives once teased you but now hound you with questions at family get-togethers – what stocks do you own? What's that gold newsletter telling you? Where can I keep my bullion? You don't want to be the life of the party, but they force it – it's all anyone wants to talk about. Your brother tells you he dumped his broker and is trading full-time. Another relative shoves his account statement in front of you and wants advice. You sense someone will ask for a loan. You don't know what to tell people. The attention is discomforting, and you feel the urge to escape.

At first it was exciting, then breathtaking. Now it's scary. You're drowning in obscene profits but are becoming increasingly anxious about how long it can last. Worry replaces excitement. You don't know if you should sell or hold on. Nobody knows what to do. But the next day, your portfolio screams higher and you feel overwhelmed once again.

You grab the local paper and read the town's bullion shop had a break-in last night. They hired a security company and have posted several guards outside and inside the store. Premiums have skyrocketed, but lines still form every day. The proprietor hands out tickets when locals arrive: your number will be called when it's your turn… the wait will be long… please have your order ready… yesterday we ran out of stock at 11am.

You begin to worry about the security of your own stash of bullion – those clever hiding spots don't feel quite as secure as you first thought they'd be. Is the bank safe deposit box really secure? Shouldn't they hire a security guard? Should I move some of it elsewhere? Is there anywhere truly safe? You find yourself checking gun prices online.

And it's all happening because the dollar is crashing and inflation has scourged every part of life. You curse at those who said this couldn't happen and mock past assurances from government. Cash is a hot potato, and spending it before it loses more purchasing power is a daily priority. Everyone is clamoring to get something that can't lose value, but mostly gold and silver.

Your wife calls and says the $100 you gave her that morning isn't enough to buy groceries for dinner. Prices change often on everything. She urges you to get some bread and milk before the stores raises the price again. You suddenly remember you're low on gas and make plans to leave work early to beat others to the filling station. Restaurants and small businesses post prices on a chalkboard and update them throughout the day. Employers scramble to work out an "inflation adjustment" for salaries. 

On your way home, the radio broadcaster reports the government has convened an emergency summit of all heads of state. They're working urgently on the problem, and all other agendas have been tabled. Outside experts have been called in. We're going to solve this rampant flood of inflation for the American people, they say. In your gut you know there's nothing they can do.

You change the channel and hear about the spike in arrests of U.S. citizens at the Canadian border. Scads of people are caught trying to sneak bullion and stock certificates out of the country – from airports to rail stations. Violence at borders has escalated, and stories of bloodshed are getting common. The White House ordered heightened security at all U.S. borders, with the media reporting it can take days to cross. Foreign governments offer meaningless help, others mock U.S. leaders for their shortsightedness. Their countries are suffering, too.

You think about the gains in your portfolio and wince at the taxes you'll pay when you sell. Nothing has been indexed to inflation, so everyone has been pushed into higher tax brackets. Citizens are furious with government. Agencies have been swarmed with bitter taxpayers and revolting benefit recipients. One government office was set on fire. A riot erupted in Washington, D.C. last week and martial law was temporarily declared. It's too dangerous to travel anywhere.

As crazy as things are, it's hard not to smile. You're in the middle of a mania. Your life has changed permanently. You're part of the new rich. You can quit work, live off your investments. Your wife is ecstatic, and you both feel as if it's your second honeymoon. Your kids are amazed and gaze at you with the same awe they did when they were children.

You're thankful you bought gold and silver before the mania, along with precious metal stocks. You daydream of where you might go, what you might buy. New options open up daily. You realize you'll need to meet with your accountant, maybe hire a second one to protect your sudden wealth. You wonder what you'll invest in next. You ponder what charities are worthwhile. Better meet with the attorney to redraft the will.

As night settles and your house quiets, you log on to your brokerage account one last time. Even though you're ready for it, your mouth drops when you see your account balance. It is truly overwhelming. You think of others who own gold and silver stocks and wonder if any have sold yet. Has Doug Casey exited?

You stare at the blinking screen, hand on the mouse, the cursor hovering on the sell button…

View article...

Sub-Saharan Africa economy: Strategic rise ViewsWire

Sub-Saharan Africa economy: Strategic rise
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
July 13th 2010

Rising global competition for commodities is giving a new strategic importance to resource-rich Sub-Saharan Africa. China and other emerging industrialised countries are vying with the subcontinent's former colonial powers to acquire long-term stakes in mines, oilfields and other commodity assets. With unprecedented volumes of investment on offer, the stakes are high not only for resource companies seeking to expand in Africa but also for the region itself. The challenge for African governments will be to manage their commodities better to avoid a repeat of the boom-and-bust years of the 1970s-90s.

Natural resources are hardly a new story for Sub-Saharan Africa. For decades the region has depended on exports of commoditiesóoil, hard minerals and cash cropsóto fund economic growth, though often with disappointing results. The collapse in commodity prices in the late 1970s and the mismanagement of revenue inflows resulted in weak growth and rising poverty, cementing the belief that Africa's dependence on commodities retarded its economic development. However, soaring emerging-market demand for commodities in recent years, coupled with the increasing scarcity of hydrocarbons and hard minerals, has changed the picture. Sub-Saharan Africa has become a prime target for adventurous foreign investorsówith Chinese companies playing a particularly prominent roleówith the result that the subcontinent once again has the opportunity to benefit from its natural wealth.

Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most commodity-rich regions of the planet. The subcontinent contains the majority of known reserves of many key minerals, including 90% of the world's platinum-group metals, 90% of the world's chromium, two-thirds of the world's manganese, and 60% of its diamonds. It contains 60% of the world's phosphates, 50% of the world's vanadium, and 40-50% of the world's gold. Sub-Saharan Africa also boasts one-third of the planet's uranium reserves, one-third of its bauxite, and 10% of all oil reserves (the bulk of which are concentrated in the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa).

Most of these resources are underexploited. Uneven development has resulted in a handful of countries dominating commodity exports. The most important by far, both in terms of the diversity of its commodity base and the volume of its exports, is South Africa. The subcontinent's other commodity giant is the Democratic Republic of Congo, which sits on over half of the world's cobalt reserves and 25% of its diamonds, as well as having large quantities of rare metals such as coltan (used in mobile phones). Nigeria and Angola dominate oil production. However, other countries are starting to develop their commodity resources, and several are set to become major producers in the near future. They include Guinea and Angola (iron ore), Ghana (hydrocarbons), and Guinea-Bissau (bauxite and phosphates).

Sub-Saharan Africa also boasts a large agricultural sector. Much of this focused on the production of cash crops for export to the West during the colonial period and in the first years after independence. Since the late 1970s Africa has lost global importance as an exporter of many cash crops. The main exceptions have been coffee, cocoa and tea, for which CÙte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Uganda and Kenya remain key global producers, and more specialised crops like cashew nuts (Guinea-Bissau) and vanilla (Madagascar). However, increased competition from Asian and Latin American producers, coupled with a decline in Africa's terms of trade, has eroded profitability. Africa also continues to export large quantities of timber, particularly to China, but poor forestry management is threatening the sector's sustainability.

A scramble for access

Major emerging markets are playing a key role in the development of the region's commodities sector. Since the early 2000s China has invested heavily in African commodities, reflecting the two-pronged strategy of China's state-owned oil and mining companies: first, acquiring access to reserves through long-term contracts; and second, purchasing stakes in local ventures whenever possible. According to the Chinese government, by end-2008 total Chinese investment in Sub-Saharan Africa amounted to US$26bn, including stakes in oil and gas concessions in Sudan and the Gulf of Guinea, copper mines in Zambia, iron concessions in Gabon, and ferrochrome and platinum mines in South Africa.

China is not the only player around. Chinese interest is increasingly being matched by investment from Indian or Indian-linked firms, notably the steel manufacturing giants Tata Steel and ArcelorMittal, which are acquiring stakes in large coal concessions in Mozambique. Brazil is also stepping up its investment. Given the expertise of Brazilian companies in construction, engineering and the oil sector, it is likely that these firms will provide stiff competition for contracts in the next phase of Africa's infrastructure expansion.

Competition looks set to be particularly intense in the Gulf of Guinea, which continues to grow in strategic importance thanks to the steady increase in its proven oil reserves (a result of better deep-water drilling technology). The region is already the focus of military co-operation programmes between African governments and the US, EU and China. Tensions between these powers could increase as each seeks to establish a foothold in the region. Such a situation could prove advantageous to countries in the Gulf of Guinea if they are able to play off competing powers against each other. However, past experience indicates that such competition and strategic alliances can be used to prop up unsavoury regimes. This also poses potential difficulties for foreign investors. China is learning the hard way that its resource grabs can expose it to reputational risks over human-rights and environmental abuses.

Reaping the benefits?

There are plenty of other challenges. The region exports a lot of its commodities in unprocessed form, thus missing the chance to add value to them. For example, Guinea-Bissau exports its entire cashew crop (over 90% of the country's exports) to India for processing. The creation of low-tech processing operations could capture more of the value of the crop, as well as creating significant numbers of jobs. However, efforts to develop processing industries in Africa have proved disappointing owing to the constraints of the business environment, poor management and competition from processors in India and China.

Broader challenges include managing capital inflows better and maximising the economic benefits of foreign investments. Progress is occurring, with improved local-content provisions in mining contracts, the imposition of tighter environmental standards and greater transparency over commodity revenues. However, greater efforts are needed. African governments must ensure that infrastructure development does not just support the exploitation and export of minerals but also facilitates trade and the movement of people and goods. Local workforces must be trained in new skills and not just used for manual labour. A large proportion of oil and mineral revenues need to be held outside the countries in question in order to prevent currency appreciation that could render other industries uncompetitive.

If African governments can realise these aims, there is a good chance that the subcontinent's natural-resource endowment could provide major benefits to the population. Otherwise, the next wave of commodity development will merely entrench poor governance and corruption and further stifle economic development.

The Economist Intelligence Unit

Source: Global Forecasting Service

© 2010 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. An Economist Group business. All rights reserved.

Sub-Saharan Africa economy: Strategic rise Sub-Saharan Africa economy: Strategic rise ViewsWire
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Mineweb - New mine capex: reality vs. perception - MINING FINANCE / INVESTMENT

Mineweb - New mine capex: reality vs. perception - MINING FINANCE / INVESTMENT

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Mineweb - 2009`s Top Story: China pushes silver and gold investment to the masses - GOLD ANALYSIS

2009's Top Story: China pushes silver and gold investment to the masses

A report suggests that the Chinese government is pushing the general public into buying gold and silver bullion, which could have a dramatic effect on the markets.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Thursday , 03 Sep 2009

LONDON -

We are indebted again to Paul Mylchreest's Thunder Road Report for news that will bring big smiles to gold and silver investors everywhere. Apparently China is pushing the idea of buying gold and silver for investment purposes to the general population in the way that Western television sells soap powder. If 1.3 billion Chinese citizens start buying gold and silver, even in tiny quantities, imagine what that will do to the market!

The report notes that China's Central Television, the main state-owned television company, has run a news programme letting the public know how easy it is to buy precious metals as an investment. On silver investment the announcer is quoted as saying " China has introduced its first ever investment opportunity for silver bullion. The bars are available in 500g, 1kg, 2kg and 5kg with a purity of 99.9%. Figures show that gold was fifty times more expensive than silver in 2007, but now that figure has reached over seventy times. Analysts say that silver has been undervalued in recent years. They add that the metal is the right investment for individual investors and could be a good way to cash in."

What appears to have happened in China is a total relaxation of strictures on holding precious metals by the individual with the government pushing gold and silver as an investment option, seemingly at every opportunity. This is a far cry from the situation only a few years ago where the distribution of gold and silver was strictly controlled. Now, the Thunder Road Report notes that every bank will sell gold and silver bullion bars in four different sizes to individuals and gold related investments are said to be soaring in popularity.

Around a year ago, Leyshon Resources managing director, Paul Atherley, in an investor presentation in London - and no doubt delivered elsewhere in the world too - commented that some employees at the company's gold mining project in northern China would, on pay day, go to the local bank and buy a small gold bar as an investment and wealth protector. To an extent we put this down at the time to mining company hype - but this seems to be exactly the same phenomenon noted by Thunder Road. The Chinese are being converted from being the lowest per capita gold consumers in the world to a nation of small precious metals investors. Now, by next year, Chinese consumption of gold is likely to exceed that of India, which has been for years the world's biggest gold market. And one suspects that the potential for gold purchasing by individuals is only in its earliest stages. As more and more Chinese move into the cities and individual wealth grows, this trend is only likely to accelerate.

Paul ends the piece on Chinese gold and silver potential with the following quote from Christine Verone, the first (and only) foreigner in the country to become a certified "expert" on the Chinese gold markets, a designation awarded exclusively by the Shanghai Gold Exchange...and also the first foreigner in history to ever be licensed in any professional capacity by a Chinese commodity exchange.

"Simply put, the Chinese government is trying to trigger a national gold craze...and it's working. The Chinese public now has gold trading platforms on steroids.... ...Also, for the first time in history, Chinese investors can even trade gold abroad (in London) with the swipe of a ‘Lucky Gold' card. I can't even get Bank of America to open a foreign currency account."

Certainly if China is indeed pushing the public to buy gold then there may well be a hidden agenda here. It's unlikely they are doing it and will suddenly pull the rug out from under millions of investors. A cynic (or a raging gold bull) would suggest that this will precede a move to switch a good proportion of the country's reserves into gold which would have a huge effect on the global gold price and could prove disastrous for the dollar. Maybe it's not in China's interests to drive the dollar down too much until it has managed to divest itself of the huge dollar overhang (see the article on Chinese Sovereign Wealth Funds we published yesterday - Chinese sovereign wealth fund dumping dollars for strategic investments like gold ). The country may well already be, of course, surreptitiously building its gold reserves without reporting the build-up.

If the Chinese are indeed beginning to buy gold and silver as the quoted report suggests then this has to be a strong signal that prices are going to rise, and perhaps rise dramatically, in the relatively near future. We await comment from other China watchers for confirmation of the gold and silver buying spree, but with global gold production at best flat and probably in decline, even a small increase in Chinese buying could have a substantial impact on gold and silver prices.

Mineweb - 2009`s Top Story: China pushes silver and gold investment to the masses - GOLD ANALYSIS

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Gold Shines In Any Way, Shape Or Form - Forbes.com

Gold Shines In Any Way, Shape Or Form

Charles Rotblut 03.17.10, 11:20 AM ET

Investors who are interested in allocating a portion of their portfolio to gold have several choices. Direct investments can be made by purchasing physical gold or gold certificates. Exchange-traded funds and futures provide semi-direct exposure. Mining companies provide indirect exposure.

The most direct way to invest in gold is to buy the physical metal itself. Registered dealers sell bullion coins and gold bars. Deciding between the two is dependent on the amount of money being invested. The most common weights for bullion coins are 1/20, 1/10, 1/4, 1/2 and 1 troy ounce. "Good delivery" bars in the U.S. weigh either 100 ounces or 1,000 grams. (However, bars do come in many other weights.) Gold jewelry can also be purchased but its value may differ from the price of gold depending on the design. As a result, bullion coins and bars are better options for investing directly in physical gold.

In Pictures: Seven Ways To Invest In Gold

The inherent problem with physical gold--or any other commodity--is storage. Space must be allocated to house the metal. In addition, and more importantly, the space must be in a secure location to deter theft. Small amounts of gold can be stored in safe deposit boxes. A safe can be used, but it should be immobilized.

Gold shot from $100 to $850 between 1976 and 1980. This gold bull began at $250, hinting gold may peak around $2,125 an ounce before this one's over. Click here to build your portfolio and to take full advantage of this bull market with Gold Stock Strategist.

An alternative is to use a custodial service. These are services that hold the metal in their vaults for a fee. Depending on the service, gold coins and bars from several different investors may be stored together ("commingled"). Therefore, it is important to ask about a service's storage policy. If a service does commingle gold, keep a record of any serial numbers.

Another downside to custodial services is the risk of the custodian running out of physical space. This happened last November to small investors who housed their gold at an HSBC vault in New York. According to the Wall Street Journal, increased demand for gold storage from large, institutional clients caused the vault to run out of capacity. As a result, the bank asked smaller clients to move their gold elsewhere.

Gold certificates provide ownership of gold, but do not require physical delivery. Rather, an investor receives a certificate listing the amount of the gold purchased, while a bank or other organization obtains and holds onto the metal on behalf of the certificate owner. Banks in certain countries, such as Germany and Switzerland, sell gold certificates. In the U.S. the Australian-based Perth Mint sells certificates through various third-party dealers.

A minimum investment may be required to purchase a gold certificate, and a commission may be levied on top of the cost of the certificate. The Perth Mint requires a minimum of $10,000 to open an account and a minimum of $5,000 for all subsequent purchases.

Counter-party risk should be considered. This is the possibility that the issuer of the certificate defaults on the contractual terms (i.e. fails to buy the gold, fails to pay the full amount due at the time the certificate is sold, etc.). This risk is particularly heightened when the third party is located in a foreign country. However, it should be noted that the Perth Mint does operate under a guarantee by the government of Western Australia.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) both are trusts that invest directly in gold bullion. Each share of these exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is the equivalent of having an interest in slightly less than 1/10th of an ounce of gold. (The reason why each share does not exactly match 10% of the current price of gold is because of the cash transactions necessary for fund operations. As a result, the trusts hold both gold and cash.)

Exchange-traded funds offer low transaction costs, are easy to trade and do not require the investor to take physical delivery. The downside is that the investor does not own actual gold, but a minority stake in a trust that has gold as its predominant asset. As a result, investors have little control as to if or when the fund chooses to liquidate its holdings. This is potentially problematic because any liquidation would cause tax issues for the shareholders.

Gold futures contracts enable investors to obtain exposure to gold without directly buying the metal or investing in a trust that holds gold. Rather, a futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell the metal at a specified price on a predetermined date. Futures contracts are volatile and can result in a substantial loss of capital.

Gold futures require physical settlement. Physical settlement means that the commodity must be delivered to the purchaser once the contract expires. As a result, an investor who maintains a long position until expiration must be prepared to accept delivery of the precious metal. (Alternatively, an investor holding a short position must be prepared to deliver gold bars.) However, this can be avoided if the position in the futures contract is closed at any point prior to expiration.

Futures contracts in general can use either physical settlement or cash settlement. Physical settlement requires delivery of the underlying asset, most often a commodity such as gold or oil. Cash settlement allows the payment of cash in lieu of the underlying asset. Cash settlement is most often used for financial products such as S&P 500 futures.

Gold mining companies are an option for investors who want exposure to gold, but wish to avoid the storage and potential tax consequences associated with the precious metal. Both profits and stock prices of gold mining companies are influenced by changes in the commodity's price. However, it is important to understand that investing in a gold mining company is not the same as investing in gold.

Many gold companies have exposure to other metals such as copper or nickel. Production costs, labor unrest, political instability and other issues can negatively impact profit margins. The competency of management and the financial strength of the company are also factors. Finally, gold stocks can be influenced by the direction of the stock market. As a result, share prices of gold stocks may not always reflect price changes of the precious metal itself.

As is the case with many other industries, investors can purchase gold mining stocks directly through a broker.

Various mutual funds and exchange-traded funds invest in gold mining companies. The returns realized by these funds will be dependent on the performance of the securities they invest in, rather than being directly tied to the price of gold. It is very important to read the prospectus before investing in a gold mining mutual fund or ETF. Some may invest only in mining companies, whereas others, such as Tocqueville Gold (TGLDX), may also maintain an allocation to gold. (If gold is held, consider the potential tax implications.)

Though the price of gold rose significantly last year, there are no guarantees that the precious metal will continue to appreciate in the future. Like any commodity, gold trades in reaction to actual and forecast demand. Perceived changes in central bank policies, both monetary and those involving the buying or selling of the precious metal, can influence prices. The strength or weakness of the dollar relative to other currencies influences how gold trades. The economy is another factor. If long-term interest rates or inflation differ from expectations, gold prices could potentially be helped or hurt. Geopolitics, though unpredictable, play a role as well.

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The most important factors to consider, however, are wealth, time horizon, portfolio diversification, the type of account the metal will be held in and the willingness to deal with potential storage and tax issues. Gold can play a role in a diversified portfolio, but, like any asset, it may not be suitable for every investor.

Charles Rotblut is editor of the AAII Journal. Click here to visit the Web site of the American Association of Individual Investors.

Gold Shines In Any Way, Shape Or Form - Forbes.com Magazine Article

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Mineweb - Now Sovereign Wealth Fund Temasek invests heavily in Inmet to fund big Panama copper project - MINING FINANCE / INVESTMENT

FUNDS WILL GO TO COBRE PANAMA PROJECT

Now Sovereign Wealth Fund Temasek invests heavily in Inmet to fund big Panama copper project

With nearly $600 million pledged to investments in two mining companies in two days, Temasek Holdings is making good on its "fairly bullish" attitude toward mining investments.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Thursday , 01 Apr 2010

RENO, NV -

For the second time in two days, state-owned Singapore investment company Temasek Holdings has made a substantial investment in the mining industry, this time in Toronto's Inmet Mining to the tune of C$500 million (US$493.4 million) in subscription receipts which will be used to fund the massive Cobre Panama copper project.

Last week Temasek said it was seeking mining investments in Africa and Mongolia. By March 30^th, the US$123 billion fund agreed to buy US$100 million of convertible debt in the South African platinum miner Platmin Ltd.

On Wednesday Temasek closed another deal, this time for C$500 in subscription receipts that will be used for the development of the US$4.32 billion Cobre Panama project. Ellington Investments, a Temasek subsidiary, has agreed to buy 9.26 million subscription receipts at a price of Cdn$54.0049 each. The closing of the private placement is anticipated by the end of this month.

The receipts can be exchanged for up to 14.16% of Inmet's common shares.

Meanwhile, Korea's LS-Nikko holds a 20% stake in the project, while Inmet retains an 80% stake. Temasek has agreed not to hold more than 19.9% of Inmet common shares.

In January Temasek agreed to buy a US$50 million stake in Robert Friedland's Mongolian coal miner SouthGobi Energy.

Temasek's latest mining investment is the Mina de Cobre Panama project which-during a 30-year mine life-- is expected to yield annual copper production of 254,695 tonnes, average gold production of 89,674 ounces annually, silver production of 1.5 million ounces, and molybdenum production of 3,218 tonnes yearly. Total life of mine production is anticipated to be 7,640,850 tonnes of copper, 2,690,230 ounces of gold, 45,228,358 ounces of silver and 96,537 tonnes of moly.

The Mina de Cobre Panama project has been under consideration since 1968. In September 2008 Inmet acquired joint venture partner Petaquilla Copper and purchased Teck Resources' share of the project.

In a conference call with analysts Wednesday, Inmet officials released project details which include the mine site, a port site at Punta Ricon, a 300 MW coal-fired power plant, an overhead power line, and a mine pit and a tailings management facility.

Inmet hopes the project will be fully financed by the time a decision is made in September 2011 whether to proceed with Cobra Panama. During a conference call, Inmet officials said they would consider corporate financing, reducing the percentage of Inmet's ownership in the project, equity and other options.

Mineweb - Now Sovereign Wealth Fund Temasek invests heavily in Inmet to fund big Panama copper project - MINING FINANCE / INVESTMENT

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Commodities pull back as dollar gains ground

Commodities pull back as dollar gains ground

By SARA LEPRO (AP) – 2 hours ago

NEW YORK — A slightly stronger dollar tugged on commodities Tuesday, causing prices for copper and oil to retreat after hitting their highest points in a year.

December copper futures fell 3.45 cents to settle at $2.9320 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier rising to a 13-month high of $2.9990. Oil prices briefly topped $80 a barrel for the first time in a year before pulling back as the dollar gained ground against other major currencies. Light, sweet crude closed down 52 cents to $79.09 a barrel.

Gold also came off its highs of the session. The December contract tacked on 50 cents to settle at $1,058.60 an ounce after earlier nearing its record high of $1,072 an ounce.

The dollar recovered from an early fall and moved higher Tuesday after weak economic data overshadowed better-than-expected earnings reports from companies like Apple Inc. and Caterpillar Inc. Commodities generally move inversely with the dollar, since a stronger dollar makes them more expensive for foreign buyers.

Among the disappointing data Tuesday was a government report showing a sharp drop in applications for home building permits.

Also weighing on commodities was more evidence that inflation remains in check. The Labor Department said its producer price index fell 0.6 percent last month due to lower energy costs. Economists were expecting a flat reading after a steep rise in August.

The PPI tracks the prices of goods before they reach store shelves and is considered an early read on price trends.

The dollar has weakened considerably since March due to record low interest rates and massive amounts of government spending designed to boost the economy. That has led investors to search for higher returns outside the U.S. currency such as stocks and commodities. Despite the gains in the dollar on Tuesday, analysts generally expect the dollar to continue to fall in the coming months, which should help drive commodities prices higher.

In other Nymex trading, December silver fell 6.7 cents to $17.5580 an ounce, while October platinum lost $8.10 to $1,350 an ounce.

Gasoline futures were roughly flat at $1.9877 a gallon, while heating oil futures fell nearly half a cent to $2.0473 a gallon.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, November soybeans dropped 13.75 cents to $9.8250 a bushel.

December wheat futures fell a quarter cent to $5.1750 a bushel, while December corn fell 1.75 cents to $3.8450 a bushel.

Among other soft commodities, December cocoa prices rose $28 to $3,333 a ton after rising to a fresh contract high of $3,345 earlier in the session.

March sugar slipped 0.58 cent to 23.59 cents a pound. Coffee prices also fell.

Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
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Gold Above $1,000: Indicative of an Imminent Market Fall? -- Seeking Alpha

Gold prices sprinted past the $1,000 an ounce mark this morning, and silver climbed even faster to approach $17. But this might also be taken as a warning that investors are about to shift out of stocks which are looking very overbought.

Shares have enjoyed a huge rally in most markets since the lows of March and have been riding for a fall for more than a month. Last week investors also ominously moved money heavily into bonds, depressing yields, and the gold and silver price surge may represent another shift to risk aversion.

Gold Above $1,000: Indicative of an Imminent Market Fall? -- Seeking Alpha

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