The MasterBlog: War
Subscribe to The MasterBlog in a Reader Subscribe to The MasterBlog by Email

MasterBlogs Headlines

Showing posts with label War. Show all posts
Showing posts with label War. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 3, 2014

#Israel Is Experienced With Prisoner Exchanges and Their Consequences @TIME

"As a community [we] will do the utmost to bring them back home.
It’s a battlefield value."


“It’s crazy to outsiders, but that’s how it is,” Rami Igra, who formerly held the job, told TIME when the Shalit exchange was taking shape. “We are a small nation, a
fighting nation. We have to show the people that fight with us and for
us that we as a community will do the utmost to bring them back home.
It’s a battlefield value. It’s a very important value, and it has a lot
of weight in our national security. Unfortunately the other side knows
it, and they use it against us.”


Dichter, the former Shin Bet chief, points out that Israel has the
means to have the last word. Hamas founder Sheik Ahmed Yassin was
released twice from an Israeli prison, he notes, first in 1985 along
with 1,149 others in an exchange for three Israeli soldiers, then, after
being arrested again, for two Mossad agents caught trying to poison a
Hamas official in Jordan in 1997. Finally, an Israeli Apache gunship
fired a Hellfire missile at the partially blind cleric as he was wheeled out of morning prayers.
“When we had no option to detain him, we targeted him in 2004,” Dichter
says. “So those who think there’s only one round — no, no, no. There’s
many rounds.”
 See the whole article on Time here: Israel Is Experienced With Prisoner Exchanges and Their Consequences | TIME

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Our mysterious man on the Nile

Magazine | Feature
Our mysterious man on the Nile
02/17/2011 20:35 By ABRAHAM RABINOVICH

Why would Marwan Ashraf become a Zionist agent? A new book creates an insightful third dimension into the mind of the superspy.

As the thin man strode into the café, the newspaper reader sitting next to the window glanced up, then down at the small photograph on the table before him. Four years had made a difference, but the resemblance was clear. Looking out the window, he nodded to a figure waiting across the street. The latter entered and approached the table where the thin man was sitting. “Mr. Marwan? I’m pleased to meet you. My name is Misha.”

Marwan rose to shake his hand.

The two were soon engaged in lively conversation. The man at the window folded his newspaper and walked out, not looking in the direction of the Mossad minders posted on the street.

Thus began one of the most astonishing spy stories of the 20th century.

Revelations about Ashraf Marwan, an Egyptian who spied for Israel in the years leading up to the Yom Kippur War, have been putting bread on the tables of a number of journalists and authors in recent years. However, these anecdotal, sometimes fanciful, accounts describe twodimensional figures viewed through a heavy mist. An epic third dimension has now been provided by a former IDF intelligence analyst, Uri Bar-Joseph, in Hamalach (The Angel), a book based on hitherto inaccessible archive material and on interviews with senior Mossad officials and others.

It is a tale of paradox piled on paradox, in which every fantastic turn is overtaken by another outrageous revelation.

For years after that initial encounter in a London café, Marwan would provide Israel with Egypt’s deepest secrets – not just information on the military but actual protocols of meetings of the Egyptian general staff, not just political assessments but actual protocols of cabinet meetings.

He would transmit thousands of documents, many of them specifically requested by Israeli intelligence. When Egypt’s political leadership debated how to cajole more weapons from their Soviet sponsors or discussed the inner dealings of the Arab world, the Israeli leadership followed attentively. As Egypt prepared for war, its operational plans for crossing the Suez Canal, regularly updated, became available to the IDF General Staff almost in real time.

Rarely, if ever, has a country been so well informed about an enemy it was preparing to meet on the battlefield.

Rarely, if ever, has a country so badly bungled the intelligence advantage it was thus handed.

For the generation of the Yom Kippur War, “mehdal,” blunder, was the word that symbolized the country’s stunning lack of readiness to meet the Egyptian-Syrian attack on Yom Kippur. In light of the revelations about Marwan another superlative will have to be invented to describe the enormity of that blunder – to have known virtually everything there is to know about the enemy and yet be surprised.

For reasons that can only be guessed at, a member of Egypt’s elite had delivered his nation’s political and operational secrets to his country’s mortal enemy. For reasons even more unfathomable, a senior IDF officer in effect dumped these secrets into the garbage can.

In both the case of Marwan and of chief of Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Eli Zeira – he of the garbage can – the one substantive mystery that remains from that traumatic period is the workings of the human mind. In Bar-Joseph’s fascinating Hebrewlanguage book we see how each man set himself apart from those around him, each operating from a worldview that defied prevailing norms. These characteristics would still be relevant more than three decades later when rejection by one of these men of the central code of his profession would be linked to the death of the other, although the two had never met.

MARWAN WAS not a literal “walk-in” as has generally been portrayed – someone who walked into the Israeli Embassy in London and offered his services. Nor was he someone who made contact, as alleged by a New York Times columnist, through a Harley Street doctor to whom he gave documents to be passed on to the embassy. He was, however, a walk-in in the sense of initiating contact.

According to Bar-Joseph, Marwan telephoned the Israeli Embassy in London in 1970 and asked to speak to an intelligence officer. Transferred to the military attache’s office, he was told that the relevant person was not in but that he could leave a message if he wished. Marwan’s message was succinct. Identifying himself by name, he said he wished to work for Israeli intelligence. He declined to give his telephone number but agreed to call again later in the day. When he did, the official had not yet returned. This time Marwan left the number of his hotel.

By chance, a senior Mossad executive, Shmuel Goren, was visiting London this day and learned of Marwan’s call. Unlike the officer who had received it, Goren knew who Marwan was – the son-in-law of Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser.

Marwan, 26, had in fact already been identified as a potential Mossad recruit. A would-be playboy, he was in financial trouble because he was kept on a tight leash by the abstemious Nasser, who would not permit family members to accept bribes. What made him a target of interest was his employment in the president’s office, making him privy to state secrets. The Mossad had begun to assemble material on him, including a picture from an Egyptian newspaper showing Marwan, the son of a general, at his wedding to Nasser’s daughter, Mona, four years before.

Marwan had mentioned to the embassy that he was flying home the next day.

Given his unique importance, Goren decided to set aside the Mossad’s strict rules for recruiting agents and to make direct contact with him immediately. Marwan was notified that a meeting was being set up and told to remain in his hotel room until contacted. A café not far from the hotel, easily observable from the street, was chosen. A relatively new agent named Dubi, who happened to be at hand, was chosen to meet the Egyptian. A few other available agents were assigned to secure the area around the café.

At the meeting, Marwan told “Misha,” as Dubi called himself, about his connections in Cairo and the importance of his job. When Dubi asked whether he had access to documents, Marwan opened the briefcase at his feet and extracted a large brown envelope. “Here’s a sample of what I can give you,” he said. “I’m not asking for anything now, but I expect to be compensated at our next meeting.” He would be returning to London, he said, in a few weeks.

After parting from Marwan, Dubi walked up the street and was joined by the man with the newspaper, Shmuel Goren. They took a cab to the embassy and together with the Mossad station chief examined Marwan’s documents.

“Material like this from a source like this,” said Goren to his colleagues when they finished, “is something that happens once in a thousand years.”

THE FACT that Marwan had volunteered his services raised the possibility that he was a double agent. The Mossad would invest considerable energy over the years checking that out, including trailing him when he was abroad to see whom he met and subjecting him to regular lie detector tests. There were never indications that he was playing a double game and almost all the information he gave over the years would check out as accurate.

Money was clearly a major incentive for Marwan when he began his spying career. Over the years he would be paid more than $1 million, says Bar-Joseph, a modest figure for the information he provided. Marwan’s anger at Nasser for trying to persuade Mona to divorce him may also have been an incentive. After Nasser died, however, when Marwan became independently wealthy, it would become clear that psychological forces were at play in his continued work for Israel.

Among possible motives suggested by Bar-Joseph, a professor of political science at the University of Haifa, were a need to identify with the strong party, the need for titillation by walking on the edge, the need to burnish his ego by doing what his peers would not dare.

Whatever the motive for his treason, Marwan would apparently prove faithful to Israel to the end.

Before parting from Dubi in the cafe, Marwan told him that in the future he wanted to meet only with him. The involvement of other persons, he feared, would endanger his security. However, while the personable Dubi had succeeded in establishing trust, he was not an experienced case officer – a combination of psychologist, priest, and stern-but-loving father – nor did he have the expertise in Egyptian military and political affairs that would enable him to fully exploit Marwan’s capabilities. It was only after considerable pressure that Marwan agreed to have another person sit in periodically on their sessions – the head of the Egyptian desk in Military Intelligence, Lt.-Col. Meir Meir.

The first meeting with Meir took place in a fashionable apartment in London’s Mayfair district. Marwan, with a whiskey glass at his side, did not rise from his seat when the dark-visaged Meir approached to shake his hand.

“He looked at me,” he would recall, “as if a cockroach had just entered the room.” The arrogance disappeared as Meir began asking questions that revealed his intimate knowledge of the Egyptian military.

Marwan admitted he did not have all the answers, but said he would bring them the next time they met. At the end of the three-hour session, Meir, whose previous doubts about Marwan’s reliability had not been entirely put to rest, asked him if he could also bring two documents: Egypt’s order of battle – a listing of all units in the armed forces – and the operational plans for crossing the Suez Canal.

At their next meeting, Marwan produced both. The order of battle gave the structure of the Egyptian armed forces, including units and commanders, the kinds of weapons wielded by each unit, the number of planes in each air force squadron, the bases at which they were located and myriad other details. The document authenticated much of what Military Intelligence had put together on its own over the years and enabled it to fill in gaps. By confirming what Israel knew, it also firmed up Marwan’s credibility.

The other document spelled out plans for the simultaneous crossing of the canal by five divisions which would seize a strip up to 10 kilometers inland. The document included the sites of the bridgeheads, the units that would construct the pontoon bridges, the order in which the infantry units would cross and the length of the preliminary artillery bombardment (38 minutes).

After securing a foothold in Sinai, Egypt would send across two armored divisions which would push toward the Sinai passes, the next step toward its reconquest. The document was a copy of that kept in the safes of the Egyptian divisional commanders involved. After examining the two documents, Meir relinquished all doubts about Marwan’s value.

So insightful into the mind-set of the Egyptian hierarchy were Marwan’s reports that Mossad chief Zvi Zamir decided to distribute them in raw form directly to the prime minister, defense minister and chief of General Staff, who normally get their intelligence reports in digested form.

To stoke Marwan’s ego and motivation, Zamir agreed to meet with him from time to time. On these occasions, “the general” – as Marwan referred to him – asked few questions aimed at eliciting information. Instead, he engaged Marwan in a broad tour d’horizon of the Middle East and expressed interest in his opinions. The Mossad even attempted to help Marwan deal with his domestic troubles, when it became clear that he was having problems with Mona. Zamir ordered his men to purchase a diamond ring in Tel Aviv for Marwan to give her, a move that apparently helped restore domestic tranquility.

The death of Nasser in September 1970 raised fears in the Mossad that Marwan would be removed from his insider’s listening post. However, in the bitter internal power struggle that followed, Anwar Sadat drew Marwan close to him, partially at least to enhance his own legitimacy by alliance with Nasser’s son-in-law. Sadat and his wife also harbored personal affinity for the talented and charming young man. Sadat not only left Marwan in the presidential office but appointed him its head, despite his relative inexperience. In addition, Marwan became a diplomatic troubleshooter for Sadat, traveling to meet Arab leaders. He was now able to provide his handlers high-grade insider information and verbal assessments.

The removal of his father-in-law’s restraining hand enabled Marwan to cultivate his talent for acquiring wealth. State-sponsored deals for the import of cars and equipment which he helped expedite carried a substantial cut for him. His position alongside Sadat made him a powerful political figure in Cairo and his social status rose accordingly. From his position at the nerve center of the Arab world, he served Egypt’s interests efficiently at the same time that he was betraying its secrets.

After Sadat went to Moscow in 1971 to request arms, Marwan provided Dubi with a protocol of the meeting with Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. At prime minister Golda Meir’s insistence, the protocol was passed on to the CIA, providing it with a rare view of a live dialogue between the Soviet leadership and its principal Arab client. CIA chief Richard Helms sent a message to Zamir congratulating him on the Mossad’s ability to achieve such high-grade intelligence. There would now be a greater willingness in Washington to let Israel have Phantoms, which would become the mainstay of the air force.

THE EGYPTIAN government had set for itself two conditions for embarking on war. If its army attempted to move beyond the 10-kilometer-deep strip on the eastern bank of the canal, which was protected by anti-aircraft missile batteries on the western bank, it would be vulnerable to devastating air attacks. To neutralize the threat, Cairo sought from the Soviet Union, without success, long-range fighter-bombers that could carry out a preemptive attack on IAF bases the way that had been done to Egypt in 1967. Egypt also wanted Scud missiles capable of hitting Tel Aviv so as to deter a strike at its interior.

However, on October 24, 1972, a year before the war, Sadat assembled his senior military leaders and announced a dramatic change in policy. Egypt would no longer wait for new weapons. Instead it would go to war with what it had. In a brilliant insight, Sadat had concluded that the army did not have to advance beyond the 10-kilometer zone to achieve his strategic aim. Once he had gained a firm foothold under the protection of the existing surface- to-air missile (SAM) batteries west of the canal, the international community would intervene and force a diplomatic solution. Which is what would happen.

Marwan promptly informed Israel of Sadat’s new policy and of his intention to send his army across the canal in January.

His report had no impact on Zeira, who remained convinced that Sadat would not attack before he had long-range bombers and missiles. The Egyptians did not attack in January, but Zeira was right for the wrong reason. Sadat’s generals had told him they were not ready.

In April, Marwan and other intelligence sources warned that Egypt was going to war in mid-May in conjunction with Syria. Zeira again dissented. “A logical analysis of the situation,” he said, “will show that the Egyptians would make a mistake if they went to war.” He was overruled by chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen.

David Elazar. The IDF did not mobilize its reserves, but large sums were expended on creation of new tank units and other steps that would prove vital when war did break out five months later. But war did not break out in the spring. The Egyptian army was ready, but in a secret meeting Syrian president Hafez Assad had told Sadat he needed more time to prepare.

Zeira had once again proven right for the wrong reasons, and his status rose sharply.

The burnishing of his analytical credentials would prove catastrophic. Elazar would in the coming months hesitate to challenge Zeira’s optimistic assessments for fear of being perceived as an alarmist.

Arab war preparations became pronounced in early September, when Syria began building up its forces opposite the Golan Heights. Toward the end of the month the Egyptian army began a major exercise along the Suez Canal. Zeira attributed the Syrian buildup to an air force clash early in the month in which 12 Syrian planes were shot down. The Syrian army, he said, was bracing for an IDF ground attack. As for the Egyptian exercise, there were such exercises every year, he noted.

The buildup on two fronts was therefore coincidental and signified nothing.

But red lights were now flashing everywhere.

Jordan’s King Hussein met secretly with Golda Meir near Tel Aviv to warn her that war was imminent. Deputy chief of General Staff Yisrael Tal warned that the Syrian army was in emergency deployment that permitted it to launch an attack without warning. War warnings were being received from several credible sources abroad.

Soldiers on the Israeli bank of the Suez Canal could hear trucks entering the Egyptian lines opposite every night to unload equipment. Bulldozers were cutting openings to the canal bank, and Egyptian soldiers were preparing descents to the water. Rubber boats were spotted across the canal and groups of Egyptian officers could be seen with maps and binoculars studying the Israeli lines. One of the most alarming signs picked up by intelligence was an order by the Egyptian command to soldiers to stop fasting during Ramadan now upon them. To many this was a clearer signal of imminent war than even the tanks now appearing in large numbers across the way.

Despite all these signs, Zeira, with breathtaking self-assurance, insisted that there would be no war and that Israel should not mobilize. The reserves constituted two-thirds of the army but also a sizable portion of the civilian workforce. We can’t drive the country crazy and strangle the economy by mobilizing every time the Arabs have a military exercise, he said.

A few days before Yom Kippur, Elazar asked Zeira whether he had activated “special means,” reportedly listening devices in neighboring countries that could be depended on to provide indications of war preparations if they were under way. The devices were meant to be activated only when a crisis was at hand since, once turned on, they were bound to be exposed before long. Zeira’s response was to assure him that the special means were producing no warning signs. In fact, says Bar- Joseph, the “special means” had not been activated since Zeira did not believe they were at a crisis point.

On the morning of Friday, October 5, the day before Yom Kippur, Dayan asked Zeira the same question and was given a similar reassurance even though the devices had still not been made operational.

These assurances effectively shut down the Israeli leaders’ internal alarms.

IT WAS Ashraf Marwan who turned them back on. He had left for Paris a few days before Yom Kippur with an Egyptian delegation.

Late Thursday night, October 4, he telephoned Dubi from there. He began by telling him about a Libyan plan to down an El Al plane in Paris with a shoulder- held missile. Only then did he mention that he would be coming to London the next day and would like to meet “the general” in the evening to discuss chemicals.

It was the first time he had ever sought to initiate a meeting with Zamir. Chemicals was the code word for war.

Zamir was wakened at 2:30 a.m. by a call from his assistant, Freddy Eini, passing on the message. Zamir’s reaction was initially muted. The “chemical” code was supposed to be accompanied by mention of one of three kinds of chemicals, each suggesting a different level of urgency or type of attack.

Marwan had not mentioned any of them, which presumably meant that he had something less than a concrete warning to offer.

Nevertheless, Zamir decided to fly to London in the morning. A few moments later the phone rang again. It was Eli Zeira, the first time the intelligence chief had ever called Zamir at home. Zeira informed him that the Soviets had begun an emergency airlift of the families of their advisers in Egypt and Syria. It was the first development in the current crisis for which Zeira did not have an explanation and it worried him.

Zamir told him he was leaving for London in a few hours to meet Marwan and might have an answer when he returned.

Bar-Joseph writes that Marwan did not in fact have a specific answer when he arrived in London. He apparently intended to offer only a general warning that war would break out within a few days. It is not clear whether he had learned this in Cairo before leaving or picked it up by phone while in Paris. Sadat was keeping his war plans close to his chest and even his division commanders would be given only three days’ notice of D-Day.

Soon after he checked into the luxurious Churchill Hotel, there was a knock on the door of Marwan’s suite. It was a friend from Cairo, Muhmad Nussair, a technology tycoon who had learned that Marwan was staying at the hotel. Nussair related that he had just met the London branch manager of EgyptAir, a mutual friend, who told him that all Cairo flights had been ordered to divert to Libya. Did Marwan, as head of the president’s office, know the reason for this? Interviewed on Egyptian television in 2008, Nussair said that Marwan had risen to his feet and said, “This means war.” Egypt’s war plans, he explained, called for the national airline to shift its planes abroad to avoid their being destroyed on the runway.

Going into his bedroom, Marwan made several calls to Cairo. When he emerged, he told his friend that the war would start tomorrow.

Zamir and Dubi arrived in the Mayfair apartment shortly before 10 p.m. A few minutes later Marwan knocked. The social pleasantries were brief. “I’ve come to tell you,” said Marwan, “that he [Sadat] intends to go to war tomorrow.” Zamir was taken aback. He had understood that Marwan wanted to pass on a warning of war but not that it would break out the next day.

“On what basis do you say that?” he asked.

Marwan told him of his calls to Cairo that afternoon after learning of the EgyptAir incident.

Zamir pressed him repeatedly on the possibility that Sadat might change his mind as he had in the spring. “Do I know?” Marwan burst out at one point. “He’s crazy. He can go forward and he can go back.”

THERE WAS a disturbingly soft edge to Marwan’s message. He had not brought this warning of imminent war from Cairo but had picked it up, by chance, a few hours before by phone from London. And he left open the possibility, however slim, that Sadat might change his mind. Zamir knew that if he sent to Tel Aviv an unqualified message of war, scores of thousands of reservists would begin to be collected from synagogues in a few hours and an awesome cycle initiated. But to render Marwan’s message ambiguous would be disastrous if it failed to trigger necessary action.

The attack, Marwan indicated, would be carried out according to the plans he had already delivered. H-Hour would be at dusk, when light would linger long enough for an Egyptian air strike but not for an IAF counterblow.

The crossing of the canal would be after dark.

Here Marwan erred. He did not know that two days before, while he was still in Paris, Egypt’s war minister had flown to Damascus to meet with Assad. Syria’s General Staff was demanding that the attack be at dawn when the sun was in the eyes of the IDF troops on the Golan and not at dusk. The compromise agreed upon was 2 p.m.

It was close to midnight on Yom Kippur eve when the meeting in London ended.

Marwan returned to his hotel, from which he would fly back to Cairo the next morning.

Zamir and Dubi proceeded to the home of the Mossad station chief. As several agents looked on, Zamir drafted a message to Eini using the terms of a business letter they had agreed upon that morning when Eini drove him to the airport. Zamir chose to be unambiguous.

The two parties, he wrote, had agreed to the terms previously discussed and they would arrive together to sign the contract on Saturday before dark. They would come without other partners.

Asking the international telephone operator to connect him with Israel he was told that it was a Jewish holiday and people there weren’t answering the phone. He told her to try nevertheless. When a drowsy Eini answered, Zamir said “Put your feet in cold water,” a move aimed at ensuring that he was completely awake. When Eini had done it, Zamir dictated to him the message. Eini redrafted it into plain Hebrew: There will be a two-front attack this day by Egypt and Syria according to the plan previously supplied by Marwan. Zero hour was given as 6 p.m.

Eini transmitted the message first to Zeira, then to the military aides of Golda Meir, Moshe Dayan and chief of General Staff Elazar. By 4:30 a.m., the leadership knew that a two-front war would be upon them by 6 p.m. In fact, they had four hours less than they believed.

It was not until 9 a.m. at a meeting in Meir’s office that mobilization of the reserves – two-thirds of the entire army – was ordered. This left only five hours before the Arab attack. That, however, together with the few hours the high command had after Eini’s wake-up calls to begin thinking through the options, would save the Golan Heights. The Syrians broke through that night in strength and headed at first light toward the main army base at Nafach. It was a reserve tank brigade, the first that arrived on the Golan after rapidly fitting out, that stopped the Syrians at its gates. More reserve units were soon pushing up other roads to the Golan. Had they been mobilized a few hours later, they would have found them blocked by Syrian tanks.

MARWAN’S WARNING had saved the Golan. He spent the war doing his bit for Egypt by carrying out diplomatic missions on Sadat’s behalf. Later, he would be intimately involved with US secretary of state Henry Kissinger’s efforts to achieve a cease-fire.

Marwan’s public service ended two years later. At a ceremony in March 1976 marking Marwan’s departure from the president’s office, Sadat bestowed upon him one of Egypt’s highest decorations. In doing so, he made special mention of Marwan’s contribution to the war effort, particularly his role in arranging the transfer to Egypt before the war of Mirages purchased by Libya.

Marwan moved with his family in 1981 to London, where he settled comfortably into the role of business tycoon, with interests ranging from real estate to armaments.

His stormy business career won him notoriety in England and Egypt, but his extraordinary life as a spy would have remained a secret forever had it not been for Eli Zeira.

The existence of a spy who tipped Israel off about the coming Arab attack in 1973 was first mentioned in the Agranat Commission’s report in 1974 but went almost unnoticed in the general trauma. The story was revived and provided a new dimension by Zeira in his book Myth Versus Reality: The Yom Kippur War, published in 1993.

The spy, he wrote, was in fact a double agent who was the most important factor in the Egyptian deception that caught Israel by surprise. The spy had twice warned of an Egyptian attack (in January and May) that did not take place, with the intention of having the next warning dismissed as a false cry of “wolf, wolf.” The agent, he wrote, had delivered his war warning to the Mossad less than a day before the Arabs attacked, knowing that it took two days to mobilize the reserves. He had also given the wrong H-Hour, 6 p.m. instead of 2 p.m.

The Agranat Commission had called for Zeira’s dismissal from his intelligence post for his grave misreading of enemy intentions in the runup to the war. Blaming an Egyptian agent for the colossal intelligence failure was widely dismissed as a transparent attempt to shift blame from himself to the Mossad, which had recruited the spy.

Zeira did not give Marwan’s name in the first edition of his book, but he provided certain details that suggested his identity. The book was published only in Hebrew and the hints passed without public notice.

However, a few years later several writers and journalists who interviewed Zeira adopted his claim and wrote that the spy was a double agent who had deceived Israel.

The agent’s identity first became public knowledge in December 2002, almost a decade after Zeira first alluded to it. Dr. Aharon Bregman, an Israeli writer living in England, published a book, Israel’s Wars, in which he identified the spy as a close relative of Nasser and noted that he was referred to in Israel as “the son-in-law.” This time, Egyptian journalists were on the case. When one contacted Marwan, he dismissed the report as “an absurd detective story.”

A reporter for the Cairo newspaper Al-Ahram called Bregman to ask if he had been referring to Marwan.

Bregman confirmed that he had. He would later say that he made the revelation in order to defend his reputation as a historian in view of Marwan’s dismissive remark about “a detective story.” He had not “outed” Marwan in Egyptian eyes, he said, because Marwan had in fact been a double agent who performed great service for his country, the view promoted by Zeira.

In a second edition of Zeira’s book published in 2004, the former intelligence chief actually named Marwan as the double agent. By this time, Marwan had been mentioned in two other books (whose authors had also interviewed Zeira) and Zeira could claim the name was no longer a secret.

Zeira’s exposure of Marwan, whom he had never met, infuriated former Mossad chief Zamir. In a television interview in September 2004, he said that his former comrade-in-arms had violated the first commandment of the intelligence community – never to reveal the identity of sources. Zamir called for Zeira to be put on trial for harming the security of the state.

Zeira promptly sued for libel. Instead of airing the sensitive subject in open court, the two retired soldiers agreed to put the matter to an arbitrator, retired Supreme Court justice Theodore Or.

An Israeli academic, Ephraim Kahana, told Or that Zeira had revealed Marwan’s name to him in an interview in 1999 but that he, Kahana, had refrained from publishing the agent’s identity for obvious reasons. To Bregman, the reasons were not obvious. Asked why he had revealed Marwan’s name to Al-Ahram, Bregman said there were several journalists working on books that would reveal the spy’s identity. “It was important for me that I be the first.” He denied receiving Marwan’s name from Zeira but said he had deduced the identity from Zeira’s book.

In his ruling published on June 7, 2007, Or dismissed Zeira’s libel charge on the grounds that Zamir had spoken truth – namely, that Zeira had indeed been responsible for revealing Marwan’s identity.

Three weeks later, Marwan fell, jumped or was pushed to his death from his fourth-floor balcony in a posh London neighborhood. Scotland Yard investigated but could come to no firm conclusion. Bar-Joseph notes that four business colleagues who were scheduled to meet Marwan in an office building just across the street from his home had seen him pacing on his balcony and even waved to him and called him on his cellphone because he was late for the meeting. At one point, two of them saw him suddenly climb on something and leap from the balcony. Another witness reported seeing two men in suits and “of Mediterranean appearance” emerge onto the balcony after Marwan jumped, look down and then reenter the apartment.

Bar-Joseph conjectures that Egyptian security officials had made Marwan an offer he could not refuse: Either jump from the balcony or we will throw you. If you jump, no harm will come to your family or reputation.

Why in 2007? Zeira had first pointed in his direction in 1993. It can be assumed that Egyptian intelligence had read his book back then. But Marwan continued to visit Cairo after that, mixing with the elite of his country as in days of yore. Even when reports began to appear in Egyptian newspapers after 2002 about allegations of spying activity on behalf of Israel, it appeared to have no impact on his standing, as if it were too absurd, or too disturbing, a suggestion to consider.

One of Marwan’s sons was a close friend of Gamal “Jimmy” Mubarak, president Hosni Mubarak’s son and heir apparent. Marwan’s other son was married to the daughter of Amr Moussa, head of the Arab League and a former Egyptian foreign minister who was a razortongued critic of Israel. That Moussa’s daughter might be married to the son of an Israeli superspy was too outlandish to contemplate. Egyptian society was all too happy to welcome the double-spy scenario which rendered Marwan a hero.

Bar-Joseph believes the Or ruling was the turning point. Here, for the first time, was an official finding by a jurist of standing, not by a journalist. It shattered Zeira’s credibility and, by extension, his version of Marwan as a double agent. This left Marwan exposed as someone who served the enemy during one of the most critical periods in Egypt’s modern history.

Marwan’s “diplomatic” exit permitted the Egyptian establishment to continue embracing him as one of its own without having to examine the dark allegations about his past. Among those attending his funeral were Gamal Mubarak, intelligence chief Omar Suleiman and the country’s highest-ranking religious leader, Muhammad Sayyid Tantawy, grand sheikh of Al-Azhar University.

President Mubarak chose to elevate the dead man to the national pantheon: “Marwan,” he told reporters, “carried out patriotic acts which it is not yet time to reveal.”

In the retirement home in which he lived, Zamir also expressed sorrow at Marwan’s death. “He had a family,” said the former Mossad chief. “He was a human being.

We’re all human beings.”

Ashraf Marwan was buried in his family plot in Cairo, the last casualty of the Yom Kippur War. ■

abra@netvision.net.il
The writer is author of The Yom Kippur War.


Share this|
________________________

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Congo's east: Still smuggling | The Economist

Still smuggling

A warlord goes about his business

Congo's east

BOSCO NTAGANDA is a Congolese army general and former rebel leader wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for recruiting child soldiers. On February 3rd a plane from Nigeria landed in Goma, capital of North Kivu in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and a group of his men swiftly unloaded $6.5m in cash. Pursued by police through Goma’s streets, they ferried the money to one of the general’s compounds. The plane was later loaded with over 400kg of gold, worth around $19m at today’s prices. But the authorities seized the gold and arrested the passengers—an American, a Frenchman, and two Nigerians—for trafficking.
According to the UN, General Ntaganda, once deputy to the warlord Laurent Nkunda, oversees a vast mineral-smuggling operation in eastern Congo. It is manned by former rebel allies who, under a peace deal, are now part of the army. The trade—legal and illegal—in gold, tin ore and coltan from the region is worth hundreds of millions of dollars. In September, in an attempt to clamp down on smuggling, the Congolese president, Joseph Kabila, imposed a ban on most mining in the east. Mr Kabila wants to root out “mafias”, he says, which include both the army and the armed militias that control the region’s mineral trade. That trade has fuelled more than 15 years of war, killing and displacing millions. But the prohibition has done little to limit the smuggling.
General Ntaganda, a Tutsi, is presumed to have the backing of neighbouring Rwanda, run by Paul Kagame, also a Tutsi. Rwanda may well have more influence in the Kivus than Congo’s own government, 1,000 miles (1,600km) away in Kinshasa. Even with an ICC indictment hanging over his head, the general freely walks around Goma. During the day he plays tennis on clay courts in the shadow of Goma’s restless volcano, Nyiragongo. At night he dines in lakeside restaurants frequented by UN and aid workers and the local elite.

Outside the town, his soldiers continue to plunder and rape. On New Year’s Day Lieutenant Colonel Kibibi Mutwara, who fought with General Ntaganda’s rebels, allegedly ordered his men to attack the village of Fizi in South Kivu province in retaliation for the murder of a soldier. At least 62 women, men, and children were raped, according to hospital officials. Unusually, Colonel Mutwara has been arrested. The trial, along with ten of his men, will begin shortly in Baraka, a nearby town.
Mr Kabila says that Congo needs peace before it can have justice. But General Ntaganda and men like him are a growing embarrassment to the Congolese, the Rwandans, the UN, and the ICC. Last month Luis Moreno Ocampo, the ICC’s chief prosecutor, said that the general’s arrest was his “next objective.” But the ICC’s power is limited and in this case depends largely on the governments of Rwanda and Congo.
Mr Kabila faces re-election in November. Arresting the general could rekindle the widespread support he had in the Kivus at the last vote in 2006—supposing he can maintain some semblance of peace afterwards. And if Rwanda ended its support for a man wanted by the ICC, that could help repair the damage to its reputation from a messy election season of its own last year. Will they turn on the general?


Congo's east: Still smuggling | The Economist: "- Sent using Google Toolbar"

Share this|
________________________

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Iran Placing Medium-Range Missiles in Venezuela

This comes from a story published in Germany's "Die Welt" Newspaper on November 25, 2010. It has been reported elsewhere. the reality is that with regards to the claims th they "Can Reach the U.S.", the missile range does not exactly match up with the distances involved... but still...

Iran Placing Medium-Range Missiles in Venezuela; Can Reach the U.S.

by Anna Mahjar-Barducci
December 8, 2010 at 5:00 am
http://www.hudson-ny.org/1714/iran-missiles-in-venezuela
Iran is planning to place medium-range missiles on Venezuelan soil, based on western information sources[1], according to an article in the German daily, Die Welt, of November 25, 2010. According to the article, an agreement between the two countries was signed during the last visit o Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to Tehran on October19, 2010. The previously undisclosed contract provides for the establishment of a jointly operated military base in Venezuela, and the joint development of ground-to-ground missiles.
At a moment when NATO members found an agreement, in the recent Lisbon summit (19-20 November 2010), to develop a Missile Defence capability to protect NATO's populations and territories in Europe against ballistic missile attacks from the East (namely, Iran), Iran's counter-move consists in establishing a strategic base in the South American continent - in the United States's soft underbelly.
According to Die Welt, Venezuela has agreed to allow Iran to establish a military base manned by Iranian missile officers, soldiers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Venezuelan missile officers. In addition, Iran has given permission for the missiles to be used in case of an "emergency". In return, the agreement states that Venezuela can use these facilities for "national needs" – radically increasing the threat to neighbors like Colombia. The German daily claims that according to the agreement, Iranian Shahab 3 (range 1300-1500 km), Scud-B (285-330 km) and Scud-C (300, 500 and 700 km) will be deployed in the proposed base. It says that Iran also pledged to help Venezuela in rocket technology expertise, including intensive training of officers
Venezuela has also become the country through which Iran intends to bypass UN sanctions. Following a new round of UN sanctions against the Islamic Republic, for example, Russia decided not to sell five battalions of S-300PMU-1 air defence systems to Iran. These weapons, along with a number of other weapons, were part of a deal, signed in 2007, worth $800 million. Now that these weapons cannot be delivered to Iran, Russia is looking for new customers; according to the Russian press agency Novosti[2], it found one: Venezuela.
Novosti reports the words of Igor Korotchenko, head of a Moscow-based think tank on international arms trade, saying that if the S-300 deal with Venezuela goes through, Caracas should pay cash for the missiles, rather than take another loan from Russia. "The S-300 is a very good product and Venezuela should pay the full amount in cash, as the country's budget has enough funds to cover the deal ," Korotchenko said. Moscow has already provided Caracas with several loans to buy Russian-made weaponry, including a recent $2.2-mln loan on the purchase of 92 T-72M1M tanks, the Smerch multiple-launch rocket systems and other military equipment.
If Iran, therefore, cannot get the S-300 missiles directly from Russia, it can still have them through its proxy, Venezuela, and deploy them against its staunchest enemy, the U.S..
But that is not all. According to Reuters, Iran has developed a version of the Russian S-300 missile and will test-fire it soon, as declared by the official news agency IRNA, two months after Moscow cancelled the delivery to comply with United Nations sanctions[3]. Iran, in fact, has its own capabilities for constructing missiles that could carry atomic warheads. According to a study recently released by the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London, Iran is presently aiming to perfect the already existing solid-fuel, medium-range missile that can carry a nuke to hit regional targets, such as Israel[4]. If a missile base can be opened in Venezuela, many US cities will be able to be reached from there even with short-medium range missiles.
The situation that is unfolding in Venezuela has some resemblance to the Cuba crisis of 1962. At that time, Cuba was acting on behalf of the USSR; now Venezuela is acting on behalf of Iran. At present, the geopolitical situation is very different: the world is no longer ruled by two superpowers; new nations, often with questionable leaders and the ambition of acquiring global status, are appearing on the international scene. Their danger to the free world will be greater if the process of nuclear proliferation is not stopped. Among the nations that aspire to become world powers, Iran has certainly the best capabilities of posing a challenge to the West.
Back in the 1962, thanks to the stern stance adopted by the then Kennedy administration, the crisis was defused
Nowadays, however, we do not see the same firmness from the present administration. On the contrary, we see a lax attitude, both in language and in deeds, that results in extending hands when our adversaries have no intention of shaking hands with us. Iran is soon going to have a nuclear weapon, and there are no signs that UN sanctions will in any way deter the Ayatollah's regime from completing its nuclear program. We know that Iran already has missiles that can carry an atomic warhead over Israel and over the Arabian Peninsula. Now we learn that Iran is planning to build a missile base close to the US borders. How longer do we have to wait before the Obama administration begins to understand threats?
[1] http://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article11219574/Iran-plant-Bau-einer-Raketenstellung-in-Venezuela.html
[2] http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20101015/160963585.html
[3] http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3982738,00.html
[4] http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-in-the-press/november-2010/iran-fortifies-its-arsenal-with-the-aid-of-north-korea/
Related Topics: Anna Mahjar-Barducci

Iran Placing Medium-Range Missiles in Venezuela; Can Reach the U.S. :: Hudson New York

Share this|
________________________

Friday, December 10, 2010

What Resource Curse? - By Charles Kenny | Foreign Policy

What Resource Curse?

Is it really true that underground riches lead to above-ground woes? No, not really.

BY CHARLES KENNY | DECEMBER 6, 2010

Bad news: Mozambique has just discovered between 6 trillion and 8 trillion cubic feet of gas sitting off its shoreline -- quite enough for commercial production. This on top of a recent coal-mining boom is destined to make the country a major natural resource exporter. Joining the East African country in recent misfortune is Papua New Guinea, scheduled to start exporting $30 billion worth of natural gas, and Afghanistan -- particularly blighted by the discovery of iron, copper, cobalt, gold, and lithium deposits with a combined value over $1 trillion. Oh, lackaday. Whatever chance they had of sustaining a stable, economically robust democracy is surely down the pit latrine now.
How so? Enter the resource curse -- the idea that the more stuff dug out from on or under a country, the slower it will grow and the higher the risk it will descend into civil war. Versions of the curse have been around for some time. Back in the 1970s, economists worried about "Dutch disease." Countries that exported a lot of gas or oil would see their exchange rates go up as a result. This, in turn, could make their manufacturing exports uncompetitive. But the idea really picked up steam in the mid-1990s, when Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner, then both at Harvard University, found that countries that exported more agricultural products, minerals, and fuels saw slower economic growth.
Sachs and Warner highlighted Dutch disease and its knock-on effects as the likely cause. But other researchers looking at the same data argued that the link might be through empowering kleptocratic leaders with resource rents or the destabilizing political impact of easy money. In a matter of a few years, resource exports were charged with a host of ill effects -- not least, low education spending, unstable government, civil war, corruption, and poor governance.
The curse is the type of counterintuitive idea that makes for a great newspaper op-ed. Nonetheless, the curse is also the kind of counterintuitive idea where intuition may have been right to begin with. In 1997, the World Bank produced some measures of total natural resource wealth -- including agricultural land, mineral and oil resources, and protected areas. The richest countries in terms of resources per citizen were Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Norway. Their average income per head in 2008 was $24,430. Jordan and Malawi were at the bottom of the list. Jordan has a per capita income of $5,702; Malawi's is $744. Looking at mineral wealth alone, Venezuela and Norway were at the top, while Belgium, Benin, Ghana (before the recent oil discoveries), and Nepal were at the bottom. While Ghana's oil discovery suggests one problem with the rankings -- rich countries have been better explored for mineral deposits -- nonetheless, the list hardly suggests that resource scarcity is the secret to rapid growth.
Looking at recent growth across countries, Swiss economist Christa Brunnschweiler concludes that economies with greater resource wealth actually grew faster between 1970 and 2000 than resource-poor countries. She also finds no evidence that greater resource wealth is associated with weaker institutions, a finding repeated by Daron Acemoglu at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Together with her colleague Erwin Bulte, Brunnschweiler also looked at the link between natural resources and civil disorder. They found that countries with more natural resource wealth were less likely to descend into civil war in the first place. The same result held whether they were using a broad measure of resource wealth or focused only on minerals or oil. Elsewhere, Stephen Haber and Victor Menaldo of Stanford University and the University of Washington, respectively, studied the relationship between oil revenues and democracy over time across countries. They found that democracies were actually made more resilient by growing oil revenues -- while they couldn't find an impact one way or another when it came to autocracies. Sure, there are cases where oil revenues and autocracy increased together. It is just that there are at least as many cases where that didn't happen -- and more cases where democracy strengthened as revenues went up.
How to reconcile these results with all the papers and articles that find a curse? Earlier studies looked at the importance of natural resource exports at a particular moment in time. There, the relationship holds -- high dependence on resource exports is associated with lower growth and risk of civil war. But that's a strange way to measure "the curse of resources." According to the usual story, the curse involves the misfortune of sitting atop an oil field or diamond-bearing rocks. It's a story of abundance -- as examined by Bulte and Brunnschweiler -- not dependence.
And dependence has got to do with a lot of other things besides mineral reserves. It is true that many countries that rely heavily on natural resource exports are poor and unstable. That's because poor and unstable countries are rarely globally competitive in banking or computer design (it's hard to develop a flourishing microchip industry as the bullets fly). Natural resources are pretty much the only thing such countries have a comparative advantage in trading. Again, countries don't get rich if all they do is produce crops and dig stuff out of the ground. Getting rich takes a vibrant services sector and at least some manufacturing. So countries where digging stuff out of the ground is an especially large part of what goes on in the economy are in trouble. But they are in trouble because they've failed so miserably to create an environment where services and manufacturing can flourish -- not because they happen to have a diamond deposit.
Do kleptocratic regimes exploit natural resources to pad their bank accounts, buy off opponents, and purchase weapons to cow holdouts? Of course they do. Exploiting, padding, bribing, and bullying are what kleptocrats do best. But they are equal-opportunity exploiters. If natural resource rents aren't available, they'll find something else -- and maybe do something worse to get it. For every Gen. Sani Abacha skimming billions off Nigeria's oil wealth, there is a Field Marshal Idi Amin massacring Ugandans by the thousands without the aid or incentive of significant mineral resources.
Happily for those countries stuck atop piles of diamonds or lakes of oil, then, it turns out the resource curse must have been enchanted by a pretty feeble witch. Once you look at the evidence more carefully, the usual argument is turned on its head. Countries that rely on natural resources for a large part of their output are indeed cursed -- by poor quality government and an institutional environment that stifles the growth of manufacturing and services. That's the good news for Afghanistan, Mozambique, and Papua New Guinea: They won't necessarily get any poorer or more unstable thanks to their massive mineral reserves. But bad news follows, too: Given the comparatively weak state of their current institutions, the countries are unlikely to use the money generated to become the next Norway, either.
That's why the most heralded talisman against the resource curse -- improving institutions through greater transparency and oversight -- makes sense regardless. In fact, because so much of the revenues from extractive industries flow through governments, improved oversight might be a particular help after a mineral find. The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, for example, publishes audited statements regarding payments from industry to government in royalties and taxes. Another approach, championed by Todd Moss at the Center for Global Development, is to pass on oil revenues directly to citizens -- a model adopted in Alaska. These are good ideas, and it is great news that Mozambique and Afghanistan have signed up to the Transparency Initiative.
But at heart, they are good ideas because all governments should be more transparent and increase the flow of resources to communities, no matter what's under their land. Blaming oil wealth for poverty, though, is like blaming treasure for the existence of pirates.
GIANLUIGI GUERCIA/AFP/Getty Images
Charles Kenny is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development and a Schwartz fellow at the New America Foundation.


What Resource Curse? - By Charles Kenny | Foreign Policy


Comparte esta pagina|

Monday, November 29, 2010

WikiLeaks Archive — Iran Stirs Distress in Mideast - NYTimes.com

November 28, 2010

Around the World, Distress Over Iran




This article is by David E. Sanger, James Glanz and Jo Becker.
In late May 2009, Israel’s defense minister, Ehud Barak, used a visit from a Congressional delegation to send a pointed message to the new American president.
In a secret cable sent back to Washington, the American ambassador to Israel, James B. Cunningham, reported that Mr. Barak had argued that the world had 6 to 18 months “in which stopping Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons might still be viable.” After that, Mr. Barak said, “any military solution would result in unacceptable collateral damage.”
There was little surprising in Mr. Barak’s implicit threat that Israel might attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. As a pressure tactic, Israeli officials have been setting such deadlines, and extending them, for years. But six months later it was an Arab leader, the king of Bahrain, who provides the base for the American Fifth Fleet, telling the Americans that the Iranian nuclear program “must be stopped,” according to another cable. “The danger of letting it go on is greater than the danger of stopping it,” he said.
His plea was shared by many of America’s Arab allies, including the powerful King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who according to another cable repeatedly implored Washington to “cut off the head of the snake” while there was still time.
These warnings are part of a trove of diplomatic cables reaching back to the genesis of the Iranian nuclear standoff in which leaders from around the world offer their unvarnished opinions about how to negotiate with, threaten and perhaps force Iran’s leaders to renounce their atomic ambitions.
The cables also contain a fresh American intelligence assessment of Iran’s missile program. They reveal for the first time that the United States believes that Iran has obtained advanced missiles from North Korea that could let it strike at Western European capitals and Moscow and help it develop more formidable long-range ballistic missiles.
In day-by-day detail, the cables, obtained by WikiLeaks and made available to a number of news organizations, tell the disparate diplomatic back stories of two administrations pressed from all sides to confront Tehran. They show how President George W. Bush, hamstrung by the complexities of Iraq and suspicions that he might attack Iran, struggled to put together even modest sanctions.
They also offer new insights into how President Obama, determined to merge his promise of “engagement” with his vow to raise the pressure on the Iranians, assembled a coalition that agreed to impose an array of sanctions considerably harsher than any before attempted.
When Mr. Obama took office, many allies feared that his offers of engagement would make him appear weak to the Iranians. But the cables show how Mr. Obama’s aides quickly countered those worries by rolling out a plan to encircle Iran with economic sanctions and antimissile defenses. In essence, the administration expected its outreach to fail, but believed that it had to make a bona fide attempt in order to build support for tougher measures.
A Sense of Urgency
Feeding the administration’s urgency was the intelligence about Iran’s missile program. As it weighed the implications of those findings, the administration maneuvered to win Russian support for sanctions. It killed a Bush-era plan for a missile defense site in Poland — which Moscow’s leaders feared was directed at them, not Tehran — and replaced it with one floating closer to Iran’s coast. While the cables leave unclear whether there was an explicit quid pro quo, the move seems to have paid off.
There is also an American-inspired plan to get the Saudis to offer China a steady oil supply, to wean it from energy dependence on Iran. The Saudis agreed, and insisted on ironclad commitments from Beijing to join in sanctions against Tehran.

Sunday, October 24, 2010

NYTimes: Iran Is Said to Give Top Karzai Aide Cash by the Bagful

From The New York Times:
Iran Is Said to Give Top Karzai Aide Cash by the Bagful
A secret stream of Iranian cash intended to promote Iran's interests in the Afghan presidential palace is seen as an effort to divide the U.S. and Afghanistan.
http://nyti.ms/9yGRGy

Sent from my iPad

Saturday, October 23, 2010

Mexican Authorities Burn 134 Tons of Seized Marijuana - NYTimes.com

October 21, 2010

Marijuana Bonfire Celebrates a Fragile Calm

TIJUANA, Mexico — It is now the city safe enough for an Al Gore speech.
Indeed, Tijuana has become a place, in the narrative of federal and local officials, not only where the former vice president of the United States can attend a business conference, as he did earlier this month, but where the drug cartels are on the run.
Human remains are no longer discovered partly dissolved in chemicals; shootouts in broad daylight are rare; and local, state and federal law enforcement work so closely that they celebrated this week over the destruction of the largest load of marijuana — 134 metric tons, or about 150 United States tons — ever seized in the country.
“Citizens of Tijuana should be proud of the authorities and the armed forces,” said Gen. Alfonso Duarte Múgica, regional commander of the army, as the seized marijuana erupted in flames and smoke after soldiers set it ablaze.
But the question on the minds of many here is whether this is a fragile peace, or even peace at all.
It is true that this is not 2008, when the headlines reflected a sense of mayhem and out-of-control violence that led to 843 killings, a record high in this city of 1.6 million people across the border from San Diego.
Yet the body count this year stands at 639, on pace to match or exceed the 695 of last year.
“The only thing that has changed is you don’t see spectacular murders in the middle of the city,” said Victor Clark-Alfaro, a visiting professor from Tijuana at San Diego State University who has studied drug violence for years. “The elite feel more safe, but in the neighborhoods where drug dealers and addicts are dying, people do not feel any more safe,” he added.
Questions have also been raised about the hard-line tactics of the police and military here. Human Rights Watch, in a letter to President Felipe Calderón last month, urged him to investigate abuses at the hands of the authorities here, including more than 100 cases in the past year in which the group said people were taken to military bases and tortured into making confessions.
“Tijuana is anything but a model for an effective public security operation,” the letter said.
The police chief here, Julián Leyzaola, an army veteran who has been photographed kicking the body of a gunman believed responsible for killing a police officer, has remained unapologetic, saying a tough line is just what the town needs to clean up its police force and take on organized crime.
He beamed at an elaborate ceremony on Thursday, complete with a military band, bused-in dignitaries, and ample national and international coverage, to burn the tons of marijuana seized earlier in the week.
It was a spectacle meant as much to send a message to the traffickers as to reassure an anxious public of success, any success.
“This was a strike at the structure of this criminal group,” Chief Leyzaola said.
And for a moment at least, residents like Juan Alberto, 21, a law school student who watched the burning ceremony at the invitation of a professor, felt a measure of calm.
“I have felt a little safe these past few months,” Mr. Alberto said. “But I know things can change quickly.
Shopping centers are busy and bars and restaurants are slowly filling again, though American tourists remain scarce.
People go to work and school, and young people are venturing out, though with some trepidation.
“It is getting better, certainly better than a couple of years ago when everybody was afraid,” said Paula Cruz, 20.
Civic leaders have been anxious to put on the city’s best face.
The two-week Tijuana Innovadora conference, intended to stoke investment, concluded Thursday after speeches by Mr. Gore; the co-founder of Twitter, Biz Stone; the co-founder of Wikipedia, Jimmy Wales; Mr. Calderón; and others.
But as if to remind the public of the drug war never far away, two decapitated bodies were found hanging from a bridge, and four young men were killed, both discoveries several miles from the conference.
David A. Shirk, who researches criminal justice in Mexico as the director of the Trans-Border Institute at the University of San Diego, said Tijuana might simply be in a lull while gangs regroup.
He noted that the authorities claimed success both when violence was high, as a sign of destabilization among criminal organizations, and when it was low, as a mark of criminal activity being kept under control.
The violence tends to ebb and flow with little explanation, Mr. Shirk added, as one group gains strength or cuts deals with the police while others fall out of favor or lose ground.
The conventional wisdom is that the gruesome shows of violence decreased after the arrest in January of Teodoro Eduardo García Simental, a kingpin known as El Teo who, among other crimes, was accused of having the bodies of scores of enemies dissolved in vats of chemicals.
Still, the bottom line, Mr. Shirk said, was that the marijuana seizure would not greatly affect the drug market and that “even with 134 tons, there is no sign the flow of drugs into the United States has abated.”
A United States Justice Department report this year said marijuana production in Mexico had increased 59 percent since 2003. The report attributed the increase in production to a 48 percent decrease in eradication efforts over the last four years.
The decrease in crop destruction “is the result of the Mexican military’s focus on antiviolence measures rather than illicit crop cultivation,” the report said.
Alejandro Poiré, the Mexican government’s chief spokesman on security, said in a recent interview that it had and would continue to make big seizures.
The seizure of the big marijuana haul, which occurred Sunday and was announced Monday, came about after the local police happened on a convoy and were fired upon.
They, along with the state police and the military, eventually found three tractor-trailers and a smaller truck in an industrial neighborhood near the border, raising the question of how such a large load could have eluded police and military checkpoints leading into Tijuana from the interior, where most of the marijuana is grown.
The 15,300 bales were tightly wrapped in plastic and aluminum foil, with some labeled “yoyo,” “dog” or “wolf,” or bearing the smiling image of Homer Simpson, apparent branding or labels for drug distributors in the United States.
It will take two days to burn it all.


Mexican Authorities Burn 134 Tons of Seized Marijuana - NYTimes.com

Share this|
________________________

Friday, October 1, 2010

Pakistan and the U.S. Exit From Afghanistan

Pakistan and the U.S. Exit From Afghanistan

By George Friedman
Bob Woodward has released another book, this one on the debate over Afghanistan strategy in the Obama administration. As all his books do, the book has riveted Washington. It reveals that intense debate occurred over what course to take, that the president sought alternative strategies and that compromises were reached. But while knowing the details of these things is interesting, what would have been shocking is if they hadn't taken place.
It is interesting to reflect on the institutional inevitability of these disagreements. The military is involved in a war. It is institutionally and emotionally committed to victory in the theater of combat. It will demand all available resources for executing the war under way. For a soldier who has bled in that war, questioning the importance of the war is obscene. A war must be fought relentlessly and with all available means.
But while the military's top generals and senior civilian leadership are responsible for providing the president with sound, clearheaded advice on all military matters including the highest levels of grand strategy, they are ultimately responsible for the pursuit of military objectives to which the commander-in-chief directs them. Generals must think about how to win the war they are fighting. Presidents must think about whether the war is worth fighting. The president is responsible for America's global posture. He must consider what an unlimited commitment to a particular conflict might mean in other regions of the world where forces would be unavailable.
A president must take a more dispassionate view than his generals. He must calculate not only whether victory is possible but also the value of the victory relative to the cost. Given the nature of the war in Afghanistan, U.S. President Barack Obama and Gen. David Petraeus — first the U.S. Central Command chief and now the top commander in Afghanistan — had to view it differently. This is unavoidable. This is natural. And only one of the two is ultimately in charge.

The Nature of Guerrilla Warfare
In thinking about Afghanistan, it is essential that we begin by thinking about the nature of guerrilla warfare against an occupying force. The guerrilla lives in the country. He isn't going anywhere else, as he has nowhere to go. By contrast, the foreigner has a place to which he can return. This is the core weakness of the occupier and the strength of the guerrilla. The former can leave and in all likelihood, his nation will survive. The guerrilla can't. And having alternatives undermines the foreigner's will to fight regardless of the importance of the war to him.
The strategy of the guerrilla is to make the option to withdraw more attractive. In order to do this, his strategic goal is simply to survive and fight on whatever level he can. His patience is built into who he is and what he is fighting for. The occupier's patience is calculated against the cost of the occupation and its opportunity costs, thus, while troops are committed in this country, what is happening elsewhere?
Tactically, the guerrilla survives by being elusive. He disperses in small groups. He operates in hostile terrain. He denies the enemy intelligence on his location and capabilities. He forms political alliances with civilians who provide him supplies and intelligence on the occupation forces and misleads the occupiers about his own location. The guerrilla uses this intelligence network to decline combat on the enemy's terms and to strike the enemy when he is least prepared. The guerrilla's goal is not to seize and hold ground but to survive, evade and strike, imposing casualties on the occupier. Above all, the guerrilla must never form a center of gravity that, if struck, would lead to his defeat. He thus actively avoids anything that could be construed as a decisive contact.
The occupation force is normally a more conventional army. Its strength is superior firepower, resources and organization. If it knows where the guerrilla is and can strike before the guerrilla can disperse, the occupying force will defeat the guerrilla. The occupier's problems are that his intelligence is normally inferior to that of the guerrillas; the guerrillas rarely mass in ways that permit decisive combat and normally can disperse faster than the occupier can pinpoint and deploy forces against them; and the guerrillas' superior tactical capabilities allow them to impose a constant low rate of casualties on the occupier. Indeed, the massive amount of resources the occupier requires and the inflexibility of a military institution not solely committed to the particular theater of operations can actually work against the occupier by creating logistical vulnerabilities susceptible to guerrilla attacks and difficulty adapting at a rate sufficient to keep pace with the guerrilla. The occupation force will always win engagements, but that is never the measure of victory. If the guerrillas operate by doctrine, defeats in unplanned engagements will not undermine their basic goal of survival. While the occupier is not winning decisively, even while suffering only some casualties, he is losing. While the guerrilla is not losing decisively, even if suffering significant casualties, he is winning. Since the guerrilla is not going anywhere, he can afford far higher casualties than the occupier, who ultimately has the alternative of withdrawal.
The asymmetry of this warfare favors the guerrilla. This is particularly true when the strategic value of the war to the occupier is ambiguous, where the occupier does not possess sufficient force and patience to systematically overwhelm the guerrillas, and where either political or military constraints prevent operations against sanctuaries. This is a truth as relevant to David's insurgency against the Philistines as it is to the U.S. experience in Vietnam or the Russian occupation of Afghanistan.
There has long been a myth about the unwillingness of Americans to absorb casualties for very long in guerrilla wars. In reality, the United States fought in Vietnam for at least seven years (depending on when you count the start and stop) and has now fought in Afghanistan for nine years. The idea that Americans can't endure the long war has no empirical basis. What the United States has difficulty with — along with imperial and colonial powers before it — is a war in which the ability to impose one's will on the enemy through force of arms is lacking and when it is not clear that the failure of previous years to win the war will be solved in the years ahead.
Far more relevant than casualties to whether Americans continue a war is the question of the conflict's strategic importance, for which the president is ultimately responsible. This divides into several parts. This first is whether the United States has the ability with available force to achieve its political goals through prosecuting the war (since all war is fought for some political goal, from regime change to policy shift) and whether the force the United States is willing to dedicate suffices to achieve these goals. To address this question in Afghanistan, we have to focus on the political goal.
The Evolution of the U.S. Political Goal in Afghanistan
Washington's primary goal at the initiation of the conflict was to destroy or disrupt al Qaeda in Afghanistan to protect the U.S. homeland from follow-on attacks to 9/11. But if Afghanistan were completely pacified, the threat of Islamist-fueled transnational terrorism would remain at issue because it is no longer just an issue of a single organization — al Qaeda — but a series of fragmented groups conducting operations in Pakistan, IraqYemenNorth AfricaSomalia and elsewhere.
Today, al Qaeda is simply one manifestation of the threat of this transnational jihadist phenomenon. It is important to stop and consider al Qaeda — and the transnational jihadist phenomenon in general — in terms of guerrillas, and to think of the phenomenon as a guerrilla force in its own right operating by the very same rules on a global basis. Thus, where the Taliban apply guerrilla principles to Afghanistan, today's transnational jihadist applies them to the Islamic world and beyond. The transnational jihadists are not leaving and are not giving up. Like the Taliban in Afghanistan, they will decline combat against larger American forces and strike vulnerable targets when they can.
There are certainly more players and more complexity to the global phenomenon than in a localized insurgency. Many governments across North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia have no interest in seeing these movements set up shop and stir up unrest in their territory. And al Qaeda's devolution has seen frustrations as well as successes as it spreads. But the underlying principles of guerrilla warfare remain at issue. Whenever the Americans concentrate force in one area, al Qaeda disengages, disperses and regroups elsewhere and, perhaps more important, the ideology that underpins the phenomenon continues to exist. The threat will undoubtedly continue to evolve and face challenges, but in the end, it will continue to exist along the lines of the guerrilla acting against the United States.
There is another important way in which the global guerrilla analogy is apt. STRATFOR has long held that Islamist-fueled transnational terrorism does not represent a strategic, existential threat to the United States. While acts of transnational terrorism target civilians, they are not attacks — have not been and are not evolving into attacks — that endanger the territorial integrity of the United States or the way of life of the American people. They are dangerous and must be defended against, but transnational terrorism is and remains a tactical problem that for nearly a decade has been treated as if it were the pre-eminent strategic threat to the United States.
Nietzsche wrote that, "The most fundamental form of human stupidity is forgetting what we were trying to do in the first place." The stated U.S. goal in Afghanistan was the destruction of al Qaeda. While al Qaeda as it existed in 2001 has certainly been disrupted and degraded, al Qaeda's evolution and migration means that disrupting and degrading it — to say nothing of destroying it — can no longer be achieved by waging a war in Afghanistan. The guerrilla does not rely on a single piece of real estate (in this case Afghanistan) but rather on his ability to move seamlessly across terrain to evade decisive combat in any specific location. Islamist-fueled transnational terrorism is not centered on Afghanistan and does not need Afghanistan, so no matter how successful that war might be, it would make little difference in the larger fight against transnational jihadism.
Thus far, the United States has chosen to carry on fighting the war in Afghanistan. As al Qaeda has fled Afghanistan, the overall political goal for the United States in the country has evolved to include the creation of a democratic and uncorrupt Afghanistan. It is not clear that anyone knows how to do this, particularly given that most Afghans consider the ruling government of President Hamid Karzai — with which the United States is allied — as the heart of the corruption problem, and beyond Kabul most Afghans do not regard their way of making political and social arrangements to be corrupt.
Simply withdrawing from Afghanistan carries its own strategic and political costs, however. The strategic problem is that simply terminating the war after nine years would destabilize the Islamic world. The United States has managed to block al Qaeda's goal of triggering a series of uprisings against existing regimes and replacing them with jihadist regimes. It did this by displaying a willingness to intervene where necessary. Of course, the idea that U.S. intervention destabilized the region raises the question of what regional stability would look like had it not intervened. The danger of withdrawal is that the network of relationships the United States created and imposed at the regime level could unravel if it withdrew. America would be seen as having lost the war, the prestige of radical Islamists and thereby the foundation of the ideology that underpins their movement would surge, and this could destabilize regimes and undermine American interests.
The political problem is domestic. Obama's approval rating now stands at 42 percent. This is not unprecedented, but it means he is politically weak. One of the charges against him, fair or not, is that he is inherently anti-war by background and so not fully committed to the war effort. Where a Republican would face charges of being a warmonger, which would make withdrawal easier, Obama faces charges of being too soft. Since a president must maintain political support to be effective, withdrawal becomes even harder. Therefore, strategic analysis aside, the president is not going to order a complete withdrawal of all combat forces any time soon — the national (and international) political alignment won't support such a step. At the same time, remaining in Afghanistan is unlikely to achieve any goal and leaves potential rivals like China andRussia freer rein.
The American Solution
The American solution, one that we suspect is already under way, is the Pakistanization of the war. By this, we do not mean extending the war into Pakistan but rather extending Pakistan into Afghanistan. The Taliban phenomenon has extended into Pakistan in ways that seriously complicate Pakistani efforts to regain their bearing in Afghanistan. It has created a major security problem for Islamabad, which, coupled with the severe deterioration of the country's economy and now the floods, has weakened the Pakistanis' ability to manage Afghanistan. In other words, the moment that the Pakistanis have been waiting for — American agreement and support for the Pakistanization of the war — has come at a time when the Pakistanis are not in an ideal position to capitalize on it.
In the past, the United States has endeavored to keep the Taliban in Afghanistan and the regime in Pakistan separate. (The Taliban movements in Afghanistan and Pakistan are not one and the same.) Washington has not succeeded in this regard, with the Pakistanis continuing to hedge their bets and maintain a relationship across the border. Still, U.S. opposition has been the single greatest impediment to Pakistan's consolidation of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and abandoning this opposition leaves important avenues open for Islamabad.
The Pakistani relationship to the Taliban, which was a liability for the United States in the past, now becomes an advantage for Washington because it creates a trusted channel for meaningful communication with the Taliban. Logic suggests this channel is quite active now.
The Vietnam War ended with the Paris peace talks. Those formal talks were not where the real bargaining took place but rather where the results were ultimately confirmed. If talks are under way, a similar venue for the formal manifestation of the talks is needed — and Islamabad is as good a place as any.
Pakistan is an American ally which the United States needs, both to balance growing Chinese influence in and partnership with Pakistan, and to contain India. Pakistan needs the United States for the same reason. Meanwhile, the Taliban want to run Afghanistan. The United States has no strong national interest in how Afghanistan is run so long as it does not support and espouse transnational jihadism. But it needs its withdrawal to take place in a manner that strengthens its influence rather than weakens it, and Pakistan can provide the cover for turning a retreat into a negotiated settlement.
Pakistan has every reason to play this role. It needs the United States over the long term to balance against India. It must have a stable or relatively stable Afghanistan to secure its western frontier. It needs an end to U.S. forays into Pakistan that are destabilizing the regime. And playing this role would enhance Pakistan's status in the Islamic world, something the United States could benefit from, too. We suspect that all sides are moving toward this end.
The United States isn't going to defeat the Taliban. The original goal of the war is irrelevant, and the current goal is rather difficult to take seriously. Even a victory, whatever that would look like, would make little difference in the fight against transnational jihad, but a defeat could harm U.S. interests. Therefore, the United States needs a withdrawal that is not a defeat. Such a strategic shift is not without profound political complexity and difficulties. But the disparity between — and increasingly, the incompatibility of — the struggle with transnational terrorism and the war effort geographically rooted in Afghanistan is only becoming more apparent — even to the American public.


Tags, Categories

news United States Venezuela Finance Money Latin America Oil Current Affairs Middle East Commodities Capitalism Chavez International Relations Israel Gold Economics NT Democracy China Politics Credit Hedge Funds Banks Europe Metals Asia Palestinians Miscellaneous Stocks Dollar Mining Corruption ForEx obama Iran UK Terrorism Africa Demographics UN Government Living Russia Bailout Military Debt Tech Islam Switzerland Philosophy Judaica Science Housing PDVSA Revolution USA War petroleo Scams articles Fed Education France Canada Security Travel central_banks OPEC Castro Colombia Nuclear freedom EU Energy Mining Stocks Diplomacy bonds India drugs Anti-Semitism Arabs populism Brazil Saudi Arabia Environment Irak Syria elections Art Cuba Food Goldman Sachs Afghanistan Anti-Israel Hamas Lebanon Silver Trade copper Egypt Hizbollah Madoff Ponzi Warren Buffett press Aviation BP Euro FARC Gaza Honduras Japan Music SEC Smuggling Turkey humor socialism trading Che Guevara Freddie Mac Geneve IMF Spain currencies violence wikileaks Agriculture Bolívar ETF Restaurants Satire communism computers derivatives Al-Qaida Bubble FT Greece Libya Mexico NY PIIGS Peru Republicans Sarkozy Space Sports stratfor BRIC CITGO DRC Flotilla Germany Globovision Google Health Inflation Law Muslim Brotherhood Nazis Pensions Uranium cnbc crime cyberattack fannieMae pakistan Apollo 11 Autos BBC Bernanke CIA Chile Climate change Congo Democrats EIA Haiti Holocaust IFTTT ISIS Jordan Labor M+A New York OAS Philanthropy Shell South Africa Tufts UN Watch Ukraine bitly carbon earthquake facebook racism twitter Atom BHP Beijing Business CERN CVG CapitalMarkets Congress Curaçao ECB EPA ETA Ecuador Entebbe Florida Gulf oil spill Harvard Hezbollah Human Rights ICC Kenya L'Oréal Large Hadron Collider MasterBlog MasterFeeds Morocco Mugabe Nobel Panama Paulson Putin RIO SWF Shiites Stats Sunnis Sweden TARP Tunisia UNHRC Uganda VC Water Yen apple berksire hathaway blogs bush elderly hft iPad journalism mavi marmara nationalization psycology sex spy taxes yuan ALCASA ANC Airbus Amazon Argentina Ariel Sharon Australia Batista Bettencourt Big Bang Big Mac Bill Gates Bin Laden Blackstone Blogger Boeing COMEX Capriles Charlie Hebdo Clinton Cocoa DSK Desalination Durban EADS Ecopetrol Elkann Entrepreneur FIAT FTSE Fannie Freddie Funds GE Hayek Helicopters Higgs Boson Hitler Huntsman Ice Cream Intel Izarra KKR Keynes Khodorskovsky Krugman LBO LSE Lex Mac Malawi Maps MasterCharts MasterLiving MasterMetals MasterTech Microsoft Miliband Monarchy Moon Mossad NYSE Namibia Nestle OWS OccupyWallStreet Oligarchs Oman PPP Pemex Perry Philippines Post Office Private Equity Property QE Rio de Janeiro Rwanda Sephardim Shimon Peres Stuxnet TMX Tennis UAV UNESCO VALE Volcker WTC WWII Wimbledon World Bank World Cup ZIRP Zapatero airlines babies citibank culture ethics foreclosures happiness history iPhone infrastructure internet jobs kissinger lahde laptops lawyers leadership lithium markets miami microfinance pharmaceuticals real estate religion startup stock exchanges strippers subprime taliban temasek ubs universities weddimg zerohedge

Subscribe via email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

AddThis

MasterStats