The MasterBlog: We have a Winner! @EconEurope
Subscribe to The MasterBlog in a Reader Subscribe to The MasterBlog by Email

MasterBlogs Headlines

Monday, October 17, 2011

We have a Winner! @EconEurope

The Economist (@EconEurope)
10/17/11 2:07 PM
François Hollande wins the French Socialist primary and will now join battle to topple Nicolas Sarkozy next year.

We have a Winner!

THE decisive victory of François Hollande at the Socialist Party primary yesterday marks the countdown to France's 2012 presidential election. A former party leader and long-time apparatchik, Mr Hollande secured 57% of the vote, next to 43% for his rival, Martine Aubry, the mayor of Lille. His nomination was backed by all four of the defeated first-round candidates, and the margin of victory was clear, raising hopes among left-wing voters that he will be able to unify the party around his candidacy.
In a telling image broadcast live last night, Mr Hollande embraced Ms Aubry and each of the defeated first-round candidates before cheering crowds outside the Socialist headquarters on the Paris left bank. It was a carefully orchestrated show of unity, after a campaign that had exposed not only ideological but personal differences among the candidates.
Beside Mr Hollande stood a grinning Arnaud Montebourg, whose protectionist campaign for "deglobalisation" secured him a surprise 17%, and third place, in the first-round vote, and even Ségolène Royal, Mr Hollande's former partner and mother of their four children, who was beaten into fourth place in the first round with just 7%.
In the end, Mr Hollande benefited from his poll lead as favourite both to win the nomination, and to beat Nicolas Sarkozy, the incumbent president, in next spring's election. Mr Montebourg, who took great delight between the first and second rounds in playing an extravagant courtship game with the two finalists, finally announced that he would vote for Mr Hollande—but only because he looked the better-placed to win the presidency. Mr Hollande has topped such polls ever since Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the former IMF managing director, was excluded from the race after his arrest in New York on sexual-assault charges that were later dropped.
The Socialist primary exercise has put the party in extraordinarily buoyant mood. For one thing, turn-out, already high in the first round, was even stronger yesterday, with 2.8m votes cast by left-leaning voters. This has lent the party a fresh, modern air.
For another, the Socialists now seem set to rally behind Mr Hollande, an instinctive consensus-seeker. Last time round, when Ms Royal won the primary to become the Socialists' 2007 presidential candidate, the party was deeply divided, and she led her somewhat solitary election campaign from outside the party hierarchy.
This time, Mr Hollande has urged unity, and reached out to his defeated rival. Like the Labour Party ahead of Britain's 1997 general election, the French Socialists seem to be so fed up with losing elections that they will do whatever it takes to win. The last presidential election they won was in 1988.
Although all polls suggest that Mr Hollande would beat Mr Sarkozy hands down were the presidential vote held today—one this month gave him 60% next to Mr Sarkozy's 40%—there are plenty of obstacles in the way.
One is that Mr Hollande now has to try to reconcile the left wing of his party, represented by Mr Montebourg, with the social-democratic middle. He needs the left-wingers if only to stave off a far-left threat from outside the party, where a grumpy anti-establishment politician, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, enjoys support.
Yet Mr Hollande also needs to appeal to the centre if he is to pick up voters disillusioned with Mr Sarkozy. This will mean some complicated political gymnastics, and will expose him to a charge of incoherence that the right has already identified. During the primary campaign, Mr Hollande called in one breath for ambitious deficit-reduction and in another for the creation of up to 70,000 new teaching jobs.
Mr Sarkozy, who has yet to declare his candidacy, has been notably absent from the airwaves in recent months. Once he throws in his hat officially, the poll gap between the two politicians could narrow, not least because the president is a formidable campaigner.
Mr Sarkozy will doubtless make much of the inexperience of Mr Hollande, who has never held a ministerial job. Mr Hollande will point to rising debt and deficits on Mr Sarkozy's watch. In the end, the choice will be only partly political: it will also be between a big hyperactive personality with experience but mixed results, and a largely charisma-free alternative in Mr Hollande, who campaigns as a "normal" candidate. After the whirlwind of Mr Sarkozy, that could just be what voters want.

Sent from my iPad

No comments:

Post a Comment

Commented on The MasterBlog

Tags, Categories

news United States Venezuela Finance Money Latin America Oil Current Affairs Middle East Commodities Capitalism Chavez International Relations Israel Gold Economics NT Democracy China Politics Credit Hedge Funds Banks Europe Metals Asia Palestinians Miscellaneous Stocks Dollar Mining ForEx Corruption obama Iran UK Terrorism Africa Demographics UN Government Living Bailout Military Russia Debt Tech Islam Switzerland Philosophy Judaica Science Housing PDVSA Revolution USA War petroleo Scams articles Fed Education France Canada Security Travel central_banks OPEC Castro Nuclear freedom Colombia EU Energy Mining Stocks Diplomacy bonds India drugs Anti-Semitism Arabs populism Saudi Arabia Brazil Environment Irak Syria elections Art Cuba Food Goldman Sachs Afghanistan Anti-Israel Hamas Lebanon Silver Trade copper Egypt Hizbollah Madoff Ponzi Warren Buffett press Aviation BP Euro FARC Gaza Honduras Japan Music SEC Smuggling Turkey humor socialism trading Che Guevara Freddie Mac Geneve IMF Spain currencies violence wikileaks Agriculture Bolívar ETF Restaurants Satire communism computers derivatives Al-Qaida Bubble FT Greece Libya NY PIIGS Republicans Sarkozy Space Sports BRIC CITGO DRC Flotilla Germany Globovision Google Health Inflation Law Mexico Muslim Brotherhood Nazis Pensions Peru Uranium cnbc crime cyberattack fannieMae pakistan stratfor Apollo 11 Autos BBC Bernanke CIA Chile Climate change Congo Democrats EIA Haiti Holocaust IFTTT ISIS Jordan Labor M+A New York OAS Philanthropy Shell South Africa Tufts UN Watch Ukraine bitly carbon earthquake facebook racism twitter Atom BHP Beijing Business CERN CVG CapitalMarkets Congress Curaçao ECB EPA ETA Ecuador Entebbe Florida Gulf oil spill Harvard Hezbollah Human Rights ICC Kenya L'Oréal Large Hadron Collider MasterBlog Morocco Mugabe Nobel Panama Paulson RIO SWF Shiites Stats Sunnis Sweden TARP Tunisia UNHRC Uganda VC Water Yen apple berksire hathaway blogs bush elderly hft iPad journalism mavi marmara nationalization psycology sex spy taxes yuan ALCASA ANC Airbus Amazon Ariel Sharon Australia Batista Bettencourt Big Bang Big Mac Bill Gates Bin Laden Blackstone Blogger Boeing COMEX Capriles Charlie Hebdo Clinton Cocoa DSK Desalination Durban EADS Ecopetrol Elkann Entrepreneur FIAT FTSE Fannie Freddie Funds GE Hayek Helicopters Higgs Boson Hitler Huntsman Ice Cream Intel Izarra KKR Keynes Khodorskovsky Krugman LBO LSE Lex Mac Malawi Maps MasterCharts MasterFeeds MasterLiving MasterMetals MasterTech Microsoft Miliband Monarchy Moon Mossad NYSE Namibia Nestle OWS OccupyWallStreet Oman PPP Pemex Perry Philippines Post Office Private Equity Property Putin QE Rio de Janeiro Rwanda Sephardim Shimon Peres Stuxnet TMX Tennis UAV UNESCO VALE Volcker WTC WWII Wimbledon World Bank World Cup ZIRP Zapatero airlines babies citibank culture ethics foreclosures happiness history iPhone infrastructure internet jobs kissinger lahde laptops lawyers leadership lithium markets miami microfinance pharmaceuticals real estate religion startup stock exchanges strippers subprime taliban temasek ubs universities weddimg zerohedge

Subscribe via email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner